No one is talking about Diablo 3. Alot of my friends play World of Warcraft and are looking to switch to this MMO. This is a subscription based game. The number of subscribers in WOW has been going down. When the game is released I am expecting Activisions/Blizzard stock to do really well. This is on top of there very successful realease of COD Modern warfare 3 recently. This is why I am long for the next 2-3 months on this company.
Although your facts are wrong, it will indeed be a big hit. There are no sub fees, but will have micro transactions that Blizzard will be making a haul off of (farmville anyone?). Most investors do not realize this game was slated as PC only, but will likely make the transition to console as well. Its a console laden world and Blizzard just spent too long making it for Kotick not to maximize its value.
Diablo players /= to Farmville players. Diablo players will be very resistent to micro transactions and extra fees. Also, Diablo is not as big of a franchise as Warcraft. I would be surprised if it sold 4m copies lifetime. I seriously doubt that it will break 3m.