I'm really big on Tri-Valley Gas, plan to round up my number of shares on Monday to 10,000. Just in case you not following TRIL as closely I am, they just past the 10,000 ft mark on they way down to the stated goal of 12,300 ft.
Drilling results for Sugar Holly #1 could be in by the end of the this month. Time is running out for high reward/high risk money. the stock is now at 1.07/share.
Roy Chiesa over on the SI's thread estimates the value of TRIL if there is a big find:
If Tril hits a 300 billion cu ft pool, that would be :
300,000,000 thousand cubic feet at $3 per thousand cubic feet (or maybe much more if converted to electricity)which comes to $900 million and assuming TRIL's interest to be 30 percent and at 18 million shares, that could result in a book value increase of $15 per share??????
Anyone is welcome to correct the math............
I beleive the reason Roy throws in the converted to electricity angle is that Tri-Valley is also in the gas fired power plant business. Could be great combination in coming deregulation era.
IMO this is a HIGH RISK opportunity to turn $10,000 to $100,000K in a very short time frame, next 60 days. But hey I might be going down im flames. I'm risking about 10% of net worth.
My usual disclaimer, do your research before investing. Roy's $3 per cubic ft I believe is high, since gas in now selling for approx $2 per thou cubic ft currently. I believe he is averaging up as the gas will sell over an extended time in to the future at higher than current prices.
Spoke with Paul Hayes (Longtime HEC Cheerleader) he still has his 12 month at $14--and yes it is cold up in Canada. I'm going to list his Stock Valuation a little summarized and I hope it comes out in the same format that I'm typing now.
Based on 122 shares outstanding
US (summarized) approx. $220 mil Proved = 1.67/share US (summarized) approx. $150mil Prob/Poss= 1.10/share
COLUMBIA ($$=PV in millions) Rio Negro-2wells: $2mil proved= $2mill Rio Negro-probable: $180 probable (50%) = $90mil Rio Negro-Possible: $240 possible(25%)= $60mil Palo Blanco proved: $110 proved= $110mil Emerald Mt-1st well : $24possible(25%)= $6mil Emerald Mt. (all): $2,000 possible(25%)= $500mil Catalina #1: $20 possible(25%)= $5mil Bolivar Agreement $2,000possible(25%)= $500mil Undeveloped Acreage: $10@100% (sale price)= $10mil
**These #'s take into consideration the Net Revenue Interest (Basically what the 50% the big "E" will take+ The % interest Hec has in each contract)
THUS: NAV for Columbia = 1,283 mil /122mil out standing=10.52/share 10.52+2.77(US)=13.29 TOTAL
COMMENTS: Lets concerntrate on the Big Boys (Emerald Mountain and Bolivar). I know I didn't include the Net BOE for each well but they are estimating that they have a possible find of 500 mil bbl for both. And then they multiple by the standard (25%-possible)). If either one of these is a billion that will result in a PV of $4,000 mil vs. the $500 that is out there now. I Hope this helps everyne with their calculations.
Jumped 24% today, on no news release, however the log reading are in and first hand witnesses state that the well is being cased for production. Drilled down to 11,300 ft, sttopped for casing, after casing (approx 7 days work), drilling to continue to 12,500 ft. I suspect the drillers and insiders all ready know there is a big find here and went on a buying spree today.
This strike could turn Tri-Valley into California's largest natural gas provide within the few months IMO. They are no.2 right now, no.1 is AHC.