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Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) Message Board

  • bgoldwp bgoldwp Jan 7, 1998 7:20 PM Flag

    80m big money

    I now where they are going to get 32m of the 80m but where is the rest going to come from? Lets hope they dont issue more shares to make up for the shortfall. Looks like estero and cat1 first of feb.

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    • Tracing the thread back from your latest (which is #148) it appears confusion started at #144 which relates to reserves found by Parkcrest and Rochester, 2 Canadian companies.

      For Harken, there is some consistency in that 2 analysts use $6 and $10 per share per billion barrels, respectively. Both
      are rules of thumb that reflect different assumptions as to (1) the rate of recovery (barrels per day), (2) the price of oil
      over the period of recovery, (3) the discount rate to determine the present value of the stream of dollars from 1 and 2, and (3)
      the incremental costs of recovery such as taxes, cartage, etc. I am sure I left out and over simplified but that is the
      substance of the calculation as I understand it.

    • Tracing the thread back from your latest (which is #148) it appears confusion started at #144 which relates to reserves found by Parkcrest and Rochester, 2 Canadian companies.

      For Harken, there is some consistency in that 2 analysts use $6 and $10 per share per $ billion, respectively. Both are
      rules of thumb that reflect different assumptions as to (1) the rate of recovery (barrels per day), (2) the price of oil over the
      period of recovery, (3) the discount rate to determine the present value of the stream of dollars from 1 and 2, and (3) the
      incremental costs of recovery such as taxes, cartage, etc. I am sure I left out and over simplified but that is the substance of the
      calculation as I understand it.

    • All the replies to my original question still don't answer the question.

      The price of stock is expected to go up some amount if 1B barrels of oil are found. I have heard the numbers $6, $10, and now $15 and $75 per share per billion barrels of oil.

      Does anyone know a reasonable way to compute this number? I'm more interested in the computation method than the actual number. I really don't believe anyone's number unless I can see the logic and calculation behind it. This could be an interesting subject for this message board...

      If I find a good answer myself... I'll post it on this message board.

      Thanks

      Maniac49


    • from what I heard before his crap began is that for each billion barrels that they find the stock price is supposed to go up 15 dollars a share.. On the contrary, the stock I feel will not go up to 72 dollars a share on a finding of only 3 billion barrels, although I could retire at the age of 21 and not go on to anything else besides finishing my senior year of college at the U!

    • Not to criticize, BUT there is no way 3 billion gets $72 --- Yes, I am long and would love that to be true. Where do you get your multiple of 6 ( if it is the stock price, why are you using it to get 18bbls?)

      Mr. Curious

    • OIL IN THE GROUND,press release says potential 8 billion bbls., if they get 3 bil, that would be 3*6, or 18 bbls per share , or
      $72 per share........ good luck....

    • I understand there is some news about the Palo Blanco Pipeline... If anyone knows what it is, please post it on the bulletin board.
      The note I saw said look at the ROH and PKC message strings, which I did, but got into indefinite internet hold.

      Thanks

      Maniac49

    • I have seen on this and other HEC message boards numbers relating to the impact of a discovery of 1 Billion barrels of oil on the price of HEC stock. I have seen $6 per share and $10 per share. I'm sure a lot of other estimates of this impact are out there.

      If anyone thinks they understand how this number is computed, would you please reply to this message. Something like 1 Billion divided by the number of shares outstanding equals 6+ barrels of oil discovered per share... but then how does one get to a dollar amount per share.

      I'm really depressed with how the 49ers played yesterday, so hopefully some good news on HEC will be coming soon!.

      Thanks

      Maniac49

    • Harken has a lot of excellent prospects already scheduled for drilling for the next two years, and a lot more that will be
      scheduled for later years. While I have high expectations for the current 3, it is not impossible they could all 3 be dry holes. I
      would hate to see Harken weakened by such a disappointment when there are so many other holes to be poked that also have so much
      promise. We still have 93.75% of the interest in the wells being discussed, and the company will be able to continue their drilling
      program even if these 3 well are a total disappointment. Of course, some of the stockholders might not be so strong, but cest la vie
      monitaire!

    • I agree with you.... HEC has plenty of capital in hand from past fund raising and from the sale of interest in these wells
      to easily finance the initial portion of their exploration program. Why not wait until they hit one or all these wells,
      identify how much capital they need to fully develop the identified reserves, and until they can get $10, or $12, or $20, or whatever
      per share to raise the money they need. The industry, based on what they are willing to pay for interest in these wells, must
      really like the odds of a major find. I can't help but believe that the investment community will recognize that value when they
      hit.

      Besides, I wouldn't mind my shares being diluted somewhat at $20/share nearly as much as I would at $7 or $8.

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