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Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) Message Board

  • mikiedog mikiedog Jul 3, 2000 4:06 PM Flag

    OT: dhrosier

    seemed that up to the actual date of
    delisting...most cos. I
    watched were trending down...like HEC,
    but on the actual day of
    delisting some were all
    over the board...for instance check out HGR
    on the
    30th. open 4, late in the day 3.75 and at the close
    4.9375

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    • Yes, that is reason for no participation in oil
      rally by Harken. It is no longer investment quality
      (lost this status long ago) and is only speculation or
      play money, money you can afford to lose. The peak in
      oil prices has passed, if Costa Rica is a bust, HEC
      is dust. Interest expense has been rising every
      quarter too-

    • 10Q, has a list of pending lawsuits, and a note
      re: SEC not agreeing with HEC "proven" colombian
      reserves.HEC is standing by its position, but if reversed by
      the SEC, a "material" write down,would occur. Maybe
      this is the reason price didn't move with crude.
      Market does not like to be suprised.

    • we have been waiting for over three years now for
      this stock to move...many screamed "it's just the
      cycle of oil, wait until crude prices go back up" so
      now with crude out the roof...why do we suddenly
      decide to head to costa??? don't you think if we had
      management with any sort of vision...that they would have
      been there already??? come to think of it, what have
      they been doing for the past three years??????

    • most people do not know they do not know reserves
      are not being discovered and developed to keep up
      with demand. In fact, we are losing, on a worldwide
      basis, the struggle simply to make up for
      depletion.

      Many people are under the impression we have an oil
      glut and that any shortages are the result of 'plots'
      hatched between OPEC and the oil companies.

      Right
      now the only thing that will give spare capacity
      worldwide would be an economic setback. Interestingly, the
      Asian crisis of a couple of years ago did not stop the
      growth in energy consumption, but merely slowed it down
      to 0.5%. Currently it is growing at 1.5% to 2.0% per
      year. Right now we are consuming approximately 76
      million barrels per day (lastest I've read) and the
      Saudis supposedly have 2.3 million in spare capacity. A
      2% increase now would take up another 1.5 million
      barrels per day.

      I personally do not believe the
      Saudis have that much capacity, but I don't know. And no
      one else does either.

      Cutting it a little
      close aren't we?

      Regards,

      Jack

    • Out in first or second week of August. Being drafted at present.

    • The Prize, The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and
      Power by Daniel Yergin,
      ISBN 0-671-50248-4
      ISBN
      0-671-75705-9 (paperback)

      By the way, The Color of Oil
      is a "can't put it down" kind of book. I've already
      read 138 pages, mostly through sleep
      deprivation.

      In it, for example, is the reason why the Saudi's
      cannot flood the world with cheap oil. Answer: it would
      cost them $100 billion to develop their infrastructure
      to do so. They do not have the money because of the
      social spending they must engage in to keep a restive
      population under control.

      On a purely economic
      evaluation, guess where it makes the most sense to spend
      money in exploration? Deep water drilling in the
      Gulf.

      And guess what area of energy will enjoy almost
      unfettered growth over the next ten years? Natural
      gas.

      Wonderfully crafted book. The author doesn't waste verbage on
      anything. Describes, accurately I might add, the oil price
      collapse of the last few years in about a page. Sums up
      everything Matt Simmons has been talking about with about
      one percent of the words. But you still need to read
      Simmons to be convinced of the evidence of some really
      serious structural problems in the oil and gas
      business.

      Regards,

      Jack

    • when is the 10Q due out? Thanks much and good luck to all.

    • The Yahoo 30 day chart does make your point. Are
      changes in the index announced in advance of the date the
      change is made?

      I went to www.russell.com and
      found the announcments of preliminary additions (June
      9) and deletions (June 23) to the index. Those are
      Fridays, but the time of release of the lists was not
      clear.

      The HGR 30 day chart shows a decided down trend
      starting June 26, Monday after deletion list was put up on
      web. However, it looks like a longer term down trend
      started May 22. The volatility on June 30 and July 3 is
      apparent.

      The Harken 30 day chart is a little different. It
      appears to have been in a recovery the week of June
      12-16, but started showing some strain 19-23 and then
      drug down 26-30 (after the preliminary deletion list
      was out).

      A curious aspect of Monday volumes
      for HEC at the Bid Ask was that although trades at
      the ask dominated the short session the Ask volume
      seemed stuck at 1,206 much of the day. I happened to
      notice one brief moment it dropped to 1,196 immediately
      after a 10,000 share trade at Ask, but within 3 seconds
      it was back to 1,206. The thought, perhaps
      irrational, struck me that some market maker was quite happy
      to reduce inventory he had absorbed on Friday with a
      gain of 1/16th.

      I looked at a few of the other
      stocks in the lists. In particular, the CUB charts are
      fascinating, and I find it curious that CUB was deleted. This
      is already too long, so I will leave any further
      analysis to any one who might be both interested and
      competent to speculate.