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Yongye International, Inc. Message Board

  • valueinvestkv valueinvestkv Nov 15, 2010 1:52 PM Flag

    Importance of great shorts research (RINO,BORN,CGA,CAGC,ONP,CHBT etc)

    Hi All,

    I have repeatedly mentioned that one should not take the shorts research lightly even though I believe some of them are just paid shills like Roddy Boyd, Bethany Mclean and Herb Greenberg(from their fight with OSTK CEO).. they just work for folks like Jim Cramer and James Chanos.. have followed them long enough to understand what's going on..have never seen honest CEO's like Patrick Byrne (of OSTK) and Prem Watsa (of FFH)and were attacked by these a.ss..hol.es.

    On the contrary, check out some of the outstanding short research on the companies mentioned above..RINO was a clear fraud if you checked Alfred Little's research last week..and the solid fra.u.d trail of CAGC's CFO (from 1990's) was also highlighted by another guy on SA..think BORN would be the next one to fall out as there are ample red flags..have already mentioned that CGA sucks and frankly think that it's just a matter of time, but don't think that it might be a fr.au.d at that level..but strongly feel that they have siphoned a lot of cash.

    CHBT clearly misled investors on their retail front operations and was effectively nailed by the shorts. Out of all the listed ones, I think CHBT is the more genuine one in spite of their deception on the number of retail fronts and their economics.

    Notice, that not even one of these reputed shorts has targeted YONG as they are clearly a high quality company and have been serious from last year itself with their signing of Sam Yu and going with KPMG right after..not counting some of the stupid and biased negative posting by seasaw as he clearly is not a professional short by any means..but he did raise some valid concerns on a couple of fronts and were answered by the company. I am not saying YONG does not have it's issues and there are some areas where I have my doubts about them, but it's true of most other US companies too.

    Bottomline, I am very happy that the skeletons are coming out fast and furious..the sooner the better for quality companies like Yongye. I think that YONG could be trading in the 70-150$ range in about 3-5 years from now as PMNPT also expects. With a PE multiple expansion from about 7-8 to 25-50 (in the near term) and consistent revenue and earnings growth of 40-50% for the next 3 years, feel it's a no brainer. I continue to believe that the ones who are going to hold out for the next 3-5 years will make a killing and not the ones who are worried on a quarterly basis. As long as the story is intact and the share dilution (compensation) is minimal, I will continue to hold and add if possible.

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    • Hi V,

      Always nice to hear from you. I did some research on Alfred Little's claims about BORN and currently tend to agree with you and Mr. Little - in spite of his occasional vagueness and habit of unnecessarily wading into fields he clearly does not belong and hence do nothing good for his thesis. Re: argument over BORN's ethanol producing processes: Dry vs. semi dry vs. modified wet vs. wet. Not necessary and - based on English language sources available - impossible to resolve.

      • 2 Replies to erikarju
      • Wow..look at the drop in ONP stock price late this afternoon after they filed their 10Q..looks like they had to demolish one of their existing plants to build a new one on the same site.. seems like BS to me to cover up their a.ss..

        So far, most of the companies targeted by shorts seem to be a can of worms.

      • "I did some research on Alfred Little's claims about BORN and currently tend to agree with you and Mr. Little - in spite of his occasional vagueness and habit of unnecessarily wading into fields he clearly does not belong and hence do nothing good for his thesis."

        Re. Mr. Little and others of his ilk, I have no choice but to stay away from the stocks they choose to throw mud at. However, as far as I'm concerned, I still don't lose sight of the fact that he and others like him is a short. That said, innocent until proven guilty......

 
YONG
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