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Yongye International, AŞ Message Board

  • ttownman0131 ttownman0131 Mar 18, 2011 1:22 PM Flag

    Edmundoluk

    Are you still out there? As you know I rarely message on any board. But your opinion is one of the only one's that I truly think is good. What is your take on YONG lately?

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    • what ever happened to Cool? I hope he is still alive!

    • Ed, Hope you didn't sleep in on todays action. Picked up 8000 at 5.40 after the 5.30 bottom. Hope it holds tomorrow. Everything is fine on this side of Washington.

    • How about your thoughts on $9 by 3rd week in July? I've had some calls on it open for awhile. As of now, I'm assuming it is lost money, and playing wait-and-see. You think July is too short term?

      • 1 Reply to andrew.cisternino
      • I take it that you know Q2 and Q3 are YONG's BIG quarters. The July calls expire on 7/15. The issue is that, it being four weeks before earnings for Q2, you won't catch the upswing into that date (8/15), if any.

        However, as our excellent poster PMNPT pointed out, since YONG is expanding big time into the southern provinces where the planting season is longer with two harvests, the traditionally weak Q1 and Q4 are no slouch anymore. The extremely strong Q4 numbers from last week is a clear indication of that, and my own DD in Chinese publications also confirmed that. Off the top of my head, Q1 and Q4 historically represented only 16% of sales, and I am speculating that by the time Q1 numbers come out, Q4 and Q1 will add up to be more than 25% on a TTM basis.

        All that, just to say that the July calls do get to play the 5/15 Q1 earnings plus two months. If the market actually moves up on the Q1 numbers, then you will do ok. Of course, the biggest question is whether good earnings will move the market at all. I myself, along with a large number of investors, have been disappointed by how the stock failed to break out upon each and every strong earnings in the past year. I am holding $7 July calls.

        Hope that helps. Good luck.

    • Thanks for your positive remarks. There's been so much noise lately - the same handful of thugs crying fraud and one know-it-all buffoon giving endless sermons - that I just got tired of participating on the board. Today is an exception. I came back to look because of the unusual drop in the stock. I am still in YONG, though I did liquidate a large chunk of common shares right before earnings, because I thought with their pre-announcement, the market had already priced in the excellent earnings and cash flow.

      What do I think of YONG as a company? There are plenty of substantial discussions on this board. Once you digest the latest 10K, and filter out the noise of the shorts and of the chest-thumping of one insufferable know-it-all on this board, the conclusion is clear: this company is better than ever.

      What do I think of the stock? Well, being a Chinese RTO stock, in the current environment YONG has been weak enough to be brought down and has been down for a long time (and frankly, I have lost a lot of dough on my large number of YONG call options). I no longer feel confident that the stock price will re-inflate substantially (say, back to $9) in the short term. If you are a short-term trader, the recent increase in daily volatility gives you even more opportunities for entry and exit (I only do swing trade and position trade). But I truly believe that this stock is a bonanza for long term buy-and-hold investors. If an investor dollar-cost-average into this stock every month, there is a very good chance of a big pay day down the road. That's what I am doing now.

      What do I think of today? If there were negative news today I would be really concerned. As you probably know, shorts work as a gang. I think today is nothing but a bear raid engineered by the same roving gang who have caused the same sudden large drop in CGA yesterday, also on no news. Look at CGA today. The shorts are now taking profits on that one and the stock is up about 4%. I expect YONG will follow the same trajectory tomorrow. I added three thousand shares.