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Yongye International, AŞ Message Board

  • h_grant_h h_grant_h Sep 7, 2011 4:20 PM Flag

    Which one is more speculative?

    I'm starting a new topic today by asking a very simple, but fundamental, question.

    Let's start: YONG or SINA?

    First, definition for speculation: "engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price."

    So, basically, one must define risk/reward in considering an investment (Note that trading is a very different matter).

    The big story in SINA is really Weibo, which I mentioned once already. From valuation point of view, SINA's demonstrated, not projected, earning/share is lower than that of YONG. And SINA's growth rate demonstrated is also lower than that of YONG.

    SINA is priced over $109 as of now. So, basically, YONG is just the pocket changes for SINA traders and owners.

    That's simply outrageous to me.

    As far as I can see, Weibo is largely unproven business proposition, even tho the speculation has run wild that the company would be able to monetize Weibo, somehow, in the future.

    However, the risk with Weibo is really unlimited, b/c Weibo is a free-speach platform in the Communist China, where nobody will have a clue where such a platform is heading in the next 5 years, not to mention 10 years from now.

    Weibo relies on individual users, especially the younger generations, whose emotions can run high. They may say anything at any given time. The most difficult thing to predict is human emotions. Therefore, there is a high odds that Weibo will run into big problem with the government in China. It is not a question of "if", but "when".

    So, how do you monetize such a platform and be able to think it will be stable? You can't.

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    • "YONG was the only long I've built a big position since $3.31."

      Of course it was...unless you take into account your aliases brodband (deleted by Yahoo for stupidity) or hughgrant12.

      Your aliases lost huge amounts of money on CHGY and JADA, Sybil!

    • "Covered half SINA here at $83.25"

      well you should have kept your ten shares, since it's now at $92.

      You vewwy vewwy cwevah, not!

    • "Concept" without substance is a very dangerous thing in the stock market.

      Many a times when some big and dumb money players/fund managers chose to chase a fancy concept without knowing the risks.

      The truth is that very few big "concepts" actually play out in the end. Very few - about 1-3% at best.

    • Covered half SINA here at $83.25. Ride with the other half, and wait for possible re-entry.

    • Our goal is to make money, as fast and as much as possible.

      I don't care about the "stories" everyone else like to tell, but I care about the facts - the reality. I'll tell the stories to my children, and my friends, later, much later.

      But I want to live with the reality - day dreaming is for amateurs in the stock markets.

    • DJ Sina corp Started At Sell By Maxim Group.

      ===============

      That's funny, b/c my new short cost base is now over $96.

    • I've never seen so many arrogant and stupid fund managers chasing a stock over $90 like as they did with SINA.

      It's like watching those moths flying right into the fires - natural suicide mission, b/c they cannot resist the light.

    • SINA is like a sand castle - at least, that's my view.

      One could painstakingly build up a very pretty sand castle, and it can be spectacular to look at for the beach-goers. However, all you need is to wait for the tide to come in to see the easy and thorough destruction.

      it's such a game of joy and merciless at the same time - a game of fleeting moments; and it's timeless.

    • It always amazed me how those BIG idiots chased SINA insanely. It has been such an easy short winner for my methodology.

      I will never understand those biggest losers among the fund managers who have been so easily slaughter - it's been like shooting the fishes in a bucket. I don't know, maybe it's just me.

    • I re-initiated my short position in SINA at $92 and change. The stock is heavily manipulated, and it's a clear indication and those behind the jack-up act are very nervous. Remember, the higher they jack it up, the more money they will lose in due time.

      Make sure you know how to handle a stock on a wild chase by those emotional jack-up-the-rippers, before you think about shorting.

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