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Yongye International, Inc. Message Board

  • investguru72 investguru72 Jun 6, 2012 9:05 AM Flag

    Need some help Longs

    RxR, i know your response and it may be the right one.

    Ok, i have been long but sold back in March when the receivable PR did not produce anything other than a pump & dump and have been quietly and patiently waiting since then. Once question that really bothers me is the Q1 new product revenue.

    On March 23rd, YONG issued the press release on the update for the new products, in there was the following statement:

    "The Company has already shipped approximately US$15 million worth of Zhongbaosheng and Qianggenbao to distributors during the first quarter of 2012, and anticipates sales of both new products to account for approximately 5 percent of the total sales revenues in 2012."

    Then on May 10th PR of Q1 states the following:

    "For the liquid crop nutrient, the two new products for crop seeds and roots contributed $47.9 million..."

    Is it reasonable to believe in just 8 days sales went from $15M to $48M for the quarter and management didn't feel the necessity to have such a significant jump in sales in their March 23rd PR? They obviously knew if the sales are legit.

    Now if i have confused the "two new products" with some other product(s), someone correct me but I haven't found any logical explanation for the above differences.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • assass: stolen.

    • assass: Who has spent millions setting what up? $150 million stoled from the gullible Americans goes a long way in China, especially in Inner Mongolia. You do know that the salary of civil servants is about $5,000 a year in Inner Mongolia, no?

      Yes, a million "a piece" is enough to feed 200 civil servants there, and more than twice as many farmers.

      There is no conspiracy here. Yongye is a complete fraud, pure and simple. Morgan Stanley has a corrupt employee (it won\t be the first time, remember?). KPMG China had at least two corrupt partners (one of them is already gone), again, not very unusual. The SEC has failed to detect all the fraudulent RTOs until it was too late (HEAT is probably the latest example).


      Now, would you please be a sport and tell us whether there is a typo in Yongye's 10Q filed for the June 2011 quarter, or not?

    • My take on this one, first of all I agree that especially in Q1 revenues are peaking in March, January and February are still winter months so low revenues but March starts seeing some stocking from the dealers and with this new product targeting the seeds, it must have been even more skewed towards March. On march 15 when they announced Q4 2011 and full year 2011, they were still saying that the new products were going to be introduced and on March 23rd, they announced that they were introduced and had already $15m of revenues, so not sure of the official date when they started shipping the product but March 23rd could in fact represent one week of shipment at most perhaps even less, they certainly had built some inventory and must have shipped a lot of products in the last 9 days of March, so a number of $15m of shipments for less than a week (perhaps even just a few days depending on the official intro date) and another $32.9m in the following 9 days at the end of March, doesn't seem crazy, if they shipped to their 30K branded retailers, this is less than $1,600/retailer, nothing huge compared to what they ship in Q2 and Q3.

      I do not see any issue with the numbers they published on March 23rd and then the Q1 results. I have been in Finance in various companies selling to retail and the end of a quarter can see some huge spike in shipment volumes and frankly a $32.9m shipment volume in the last 9 days of a quarter for a company capable of shipping over $200m of products in a given quarter, seems very reasonable.

      • 5 Replies to allan74z
      • Allan,

        How dare you bring sanity into this thread!

        :P

        Max

      • Allan,

        How dare you bring sanity into this thread!

        <sic>

        Max

      • allan: According to Yongye's SEC filings, Yongye does not ship to any branded retailers, but only to 25 provincial and subprovincial distributors.

        Also, Yongye is incapable of shipping even close to $200 million of products in a given quarter. For example, in the March 2012 quarter, the company reported shipment of just 5,214 tons of old and new products (ex animal or "animal crop"), which comes to about $62 million.

        Yongye's reported annual production capacity is just 46,000 tons, or about $547 million if all of it was used for old and new crop products, nowhere near your $800 million implied from 4x $200 million.

      • The point where I have an issue is with the projected sales of the new products as a % of total sales for the year, they said on March 23rd that they expected the new products to represent 5% of total 2012 sales and they have projected sales around $500m which would have meant $25m and they had already $47.9m in Q1. We know that Q1 is certainly a strong quarter for these products focusing on the seeds but still the number is way higher than what they expected, so for sure they underestimated the sales of the new products and they could have also guided to a low revenue number for 2012.

        Again my take on these numbers, let's see what Q2 will look like, we know that the old products will be the core of the sales but curious to see how much new product sale they had as well.

    • guru: You are correct - I missed this particular discrepancy and therefore I had not mentioned it before you brought it up (I had focused on the sales of "powder animal crop nutrient" and the the fact that a related party was the only one "offering" the new products, actually just one of the new new products, in the March quarter, even though Yongye did not disclose any sales to it in the March quarter).

    • GURU, we will not put you on ignore as we want to warn other people regarding your bad manipulative intentions.
      Talk to you next time when you play with the brains of people.

    • Please...put me on ignore, it is very effective, I use it all the time and that way you will not see the response i receive Yu.

    • ok, gave it a day, no one could come up with any type of reasonable explanation. While i would like to believe YONG is legit, i smell another Chinese rat. Too many similar rats in/have been in this Chinese space. I'll keep watching but not buying.

    • investguru7...
      Here is ALL the help you or any other Q asking person wanting to know something special about YONG. EVEN YOU RxR...
      Don't ask us, asked these guys, IF YA REALLY WANT TO KNOW.

      %: Sam Yu, Chief Financial Officer
      ir@yongyeintl.com

      Fax: +86-10-8231 1797
      Phone: +86-10-8232 8866 ext. 8827

      Yongye International, Inc. (Beijing Location)
      Address: Suite 608, Xueyuan International Tower No. 1 Zhichun Road
      Haidian District, Beijing, China 100083

      Yongye International, Inc. (Hohhot Location)
      Address: Yongye Biological Park, Yongye Road, Jin Shan Economic Development Zone,
      Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China 010010

      OR HERE:
      %: John Capodanno
      yong@fticonsulting.com
      Fax: +1-212-850-5790
      Phone: +1-212-850-5705

      FTI Consulting
      88 Pine Street, 32nd Floor
      New York, NY, 10005
      %: John Capodanno

    • Dear mister investguru7..

      On press release from March 23, 2012 they are talking only about there new product. The old product was selling where not in this release.


      check the release again from March 23

    • Should have been disclosed on March 23rd in any circumstance and saying they prepared the PR earlier doesn't make sense as they indicated on March 15th that a PR on the new products would be coming out soon which would imply it was not already prepared earlier in the month (again, which makes absolutely no sense).

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