I doubt we will see this year. That would take a major annoucement by FRO concerning a new comment from the Mr. F groups and even then the sector is not going to recover this year. Only a short term event like the middle east flare up would I think see any movement above $4 this year. Right now $3 looks good to me to hope for lol.
I'm going to say $3 by June. After that things get sketchy. A lot of things need to go right for it to get to $5 by the end of the year. Here's the thing though, if they do get to $5 it isn't going to stop there. I think a more likely scenario is getting back into the $3-4 range we were in last fall.