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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

  • rami36 Mar 22, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    this will not rally like it did last year

    Pretty much no hope from this shipper, given the heavy heavy debt it carries.

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    • Strangely, last year's rally (which had already occurred by this time) was also AFTER the restructuring, which occurred late in 2011. So I fail to see the basis for your assertion. At that time, investors seemed to misperceive, rather hopelessly, the extent of the market/rate recovery.

      If the markets recover, I see no reason why FRO should not also recover to at least 10, even with the SFL profits tax (in the old days it might have quickly recovered to 30). The debt, too, is only a show-stopper if the market never recovers. Currently, NAT's boss seems bullish, though whether he's delusional is hard for us outsiders to judge.

      The only thing that's clear is that FRO's current PPS is a rather grim weighted average of probabilities. There's no world where FRO is really worth 2, it's either break-up value (ie. selling the tankers to NAT, or some such, and paying off the debt with the proceeds) or much higher.

      • 1 Reply to pjmyers_tsi
      • Given that FRO traded away the best ships and first-to-return profits to avoid BK, a return to 10 is simply not in the cards.

        Unless, of course, the US immediately stopped all fracking and 25% of the worldwide fleet of VLCCs and Suzies is scrapped or torpedoed. Neither of which is likely to happen.

        Decent money will be made trading the swings. But a quadruple/quintuple to 10? That's about as likely as the US auto market returning to gas-guzzlers.

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