Texas voters- even Republicans- have had enough of Rick Perry.
PPP's newest poll finds that only 31% of voters think Perry should seek reelection next year, compared to 62% who think it's time for him to step aside. He's among the most unpopular Governors in the country, with only 41% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove.
Perry could face great peril in a primary challenge next year. Only 41% of GOP primary voters want him to be their candidate again, compared to 47% who think it's time for someone else. And in a head to head match up with Attorney General Greg Abbott, Perry leads by only a 41/38 margin. What makes those numbers particularly worrisome for Perry is that Abbott only has 59% name recognition at this point with primary voters. Among voters who are familiar with Abbott- whether they like him or not- he leads Perry 55/33. That suggests the potential for things to get worse for Perry if Abbott does indeed go forward with a bid.
The Abbott threat to Perry does not represent the typical Tea Party insurgency that has endangered many Republican office holders over the last couple election cycles. GOP voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' want Perry to be their candidate again by a 53/33 margin. But moderates (77/15) and voters identifying as just 'somewhat conservative' (49/38) are both ready for a change.
If Abbott ends up being the Republican nominee for Governor next year, the party's 20 year lock on that office in Texas should be pretty safe. We find him up 7-12 points against all the Democrats we tested- 46/39 over 2010 nominee Bill White, 46/36 over San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, 46/34 over State Senator Wendy Davis, and 47/35 over Houston Mayor Annise Parker. Speaking to the difficulty in breaking through in a state the size of Texas, none of the Democrats are terribly well known- White has 58% name recognition, Castro's is 53%, Davis' is 34%, and Parker's is 33%.
Democrats, however, would have a better than normal chance at winning the Governor's office if Perry did somehow make it through to be the nominee for another term. We find White actually slightly ahead of him at 47/44. And although Perry leads Castro (47/42), Davis (47/41), and Parker (47/40) the margins are all a good deal narrower than they are for Abbott against the same foes.
There's been some speculation recently that Perry might be interested in making another bid for the White House. But only 14% of Texans think Perry should run again, to 79% who are opposed to the idea. Even among his fellow Republicans only 22% think Perry should run for President again with 66% against the concept.
It's never smart to totally rule out Rick Perry. In 2010 he ended up faring much better in both the primary and general elections than where he started out. But at least for now most Texas voters are ready to move on.