1 week and 1 day until the election and republicans are looking good according to reliable Rasmussen
Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46%
Monday, October 29, 2012
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
Nationally, Romney still holds a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year
Reviewing the Republicans' past predictions is one of my favorite sports. Like after Algore's vote assured passage of President Clinton's economic plan. Newt Gingrich confidently predicted the plan would fail and Steve Forbes advised readers of his magazine to invest in Japan. As expected from past records of the naysayers the U.S. stock market had its biggest boom in history, 22 + million new jobs were created in 8 years, and the Japanese stock market tanked.
Thankfully though, the GOP has a really smart guy that knows how to read the polling data in an unskewed matter. How many pukes fell for that nonsense, besides Mitty? ROTFF
Meet Dean Chambers, The Only Pollster Who Still Thinks Mitt Romney Is Winning
Sep. 26, 2012, 4:38 PM
Courtesy of Dean Chambers
The last few days have brought a wave of good news for President Obama in national and swing-state polling. But according to one pollster — and only one pollster — Mitt Romney is still the one with the advantage.
That pollster is Dean Chambers, the founder of UnSkewed Polls. His site, which has earned endorsements from Texas Gov. Rick Perry and The Drudge Report, has picked up steam this week, becoming a rallying cry for conservatives who cite it as proof that polls are slanted in a effort to paint a much rosier picture for Obama than reality.
"Imagine how different the narrative would be if they adhered to proportionate sampling," Chambers said in a phone interview, pointing to the CBS/New York Times and CNN/ORC polls as the main culprits of "skewing."
"They're just creating the illusion that Obama is doing much better than he is. They hope it will drive voters."
Others polling agencies, he says, are simply doing it wrong without any bad intentions. But Chambers' main problem with the recent polls that, on average, give Obama a 4-point lead over Romney, is that they oversample people that identify as Democrats. That reflects a popular conservative consensus as of late.
What Chambers, a 45-year-old from Virginia, does on his site is "
Not everyone agrees though. Like this clown, Nate Silver, who FOX said was a fool and has no idea what he's talking about.
Nate Silver: 92 Percent Chance Obama Wins Election Day
By Laura Matthews
on November 06 2012 10:04 am
The national polls may be showing that the election is a toss-up between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney. But not so, says The New York Times statistics guru Nate Silver, who predicts that Obama has a 92 percent chance of winning on Election Day.
In the Monday update to his FiveThirtyEight blog, Silver argues:
“Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
“But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.”
US Election 2012: Obama Edges Ahead
Joe Scarborough, Nate Silver Dispute Closeness of 2012 Election; Silver Bets 'Morning Joe' Host $1K Obama Wins
“Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.”
Silver’s forecast then is that Obama will win the electoral college and even secure more of the popular votes.
By The Numbers
Here’s a breakdown of Silver’s numbers:
- Obama will get 314.6 electoral votes while Romney 223.4. The number needed to win is 270;
- The President has a 91.6 percent chance of winning while Romney has a mere 8.4 percent;
- Obama will bag 50.9 percent of the popular vote while Romney gets 4