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Global Axcess Corp. Message Board

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  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jul 7, 2009 2:19 AM Flag

    Irritated Dawg

    STRONGLY disagree with both of you. This 3% holder supports the move 100%. I thought the press release was TOTALLY classy, and shows EXACTLY WHY our company needs a IR firm. Pointing out that we are selling at little more than 3x last year's free cash flow is EXACTLY the kind of thing the market needs to hear.

    My own belief is that management BELIEVES that there is a story worth telling here, which is why they did a turnabout, and are now going with an IR firm, despite talk pooh-poohing the concept in the most recent conference call.

    Frankly, I consider that turnabout to be incredibly bullish, just simply reading into what I think it must mean. Specifically, that their confidence level has grown, even since the most recent earnings release, and they don't believe that telling the story is going to results in a whole class of "disappointed" new investors, or that the company is at risk of "falling on its face."

    I bought more last week in the 40-42 cent range, but, considering the lack of follow through buying by the broader market, and recent market weakness, and waiting for "sub 40 cents" before nibbling more, as we have had a bit of a run recently, and would hardly be shocked if we got the chance to buy more in the 34-36 range again. (Then again, would hardly be shocked to see 40 cents hold as a support level.)

    Bottom line is, they have every reason to be able to pay off virtually ALL of their debt, over the next year or two (if they should want to), while meanwhile, increasing their earnings, by probably 15-25%, year over year, going forward. The Street is going to value a growing GAXC, without the previous earnings "noise" we have seen, at a much higher multiple, especially when you consider that the balance sheet is going to go from "weak" (a few years ago), to adequate (currently) to "strong" or even "bedrock" a year or 2 from now.

    My 6 month target is 60-85 cents, and my 12-18 month target is $1.00-1.50.

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    • One of the reasons I'm so impressed, is because I think this is an EXCELLENT and fair-minded summarization of the GAXC value proposition. It's not the job of management to directly play "huckster." That's the job of an IR firm. To "market" the aspects of GAXC's story to the relevant "niches" in the investment community, and make those segments aware that GAXC, as a company, just for example, that sells at only 3x last year's free cash flow, and yet is GROWING, exists.

      The bottom line is that if the Street starts to see GAXC as a long term double digit grower, EVEN with a return to higher interest rates, and the drag on profitability from that, they could EASILY put a 15 multiple on the stock, and we could be selling for as much as $2-4 in 2-3 years, I believe (assuming earnings increase as much a I think they can).

      Simply put, this is a GREAT STORY, with the "sword of damocles" of CAMOFI off their head, and the announcements portending GROWTH of the last several weeks. Why SHOULDN'T management, and we the shareholders, want to get that story out there. I don't think of this as "hype" in the least; I think of helping the Street to "discover" the value that I personally discovered here a year or more ago...and took advantage of in the IRRATIONAL sell off of last fall and this most recent winter.

      • 1 Reply to longtimefollower
      • I forgot to attach this excerpt from the GAXC press release. I know you've all read it, but I just find the quality of the narrative to be very impressive, very fair-minded and not a "tout," and very classy. (Yes Virginia, there IS a story to tell here!)

        Mr. Brett Maas, Managing Partner at Hayden IR, stated, "In my opinion, the management of Global Axcess Corp has done a tremendous job of repositioning the enterprise to differentiate it from others in the industry and to set the stage for revenue growth and margin expansion. In each of the last three years, the Company has grown its revenue and generated free cash flow, including 13 cents per share in free cash flow during fiscal 2008. Global Axcess Corp is a profitable, publicly-traded company in the non-bank ATM independent sales organization (ISO) segment of the market, and I believe this financial performance is not reflected in its current share price. As the seventh-largest non-bank, ATM ISO, the Company has established a profitable, fully-integrated growth platform for the ownership, sale, distribution and maintenance of transaction processing businesses. The Company's strategy to leverage the national footprint to become a differentiated provider of self-service kiosks of all kinds throughout the country will, in my opinion, help the Company to achieve consistent growth and premium valuations."

 
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