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  • lk2sbdk lk2sbdk Mar 21, 2008 11:39 AM Flag

    Accumulation vs. Distribution

    Here are my concerns from a macro/micro perspective in no particular order:

    1. I do not think management is "open enough" in their guidance. Case in point, why not disclose the debt offering @ the earnings call and allow the financial/investment community to ask questions.

    2. Jan Tech Road show painted a different picture from that of the earnings call.

    3. I think (needs to be verified) that about 40% of their poly supply is still based on spot market. This sourcing issue is a MAJOR problem and will take many quarters to fix.

    4. Pluto (new efficiency process technology) will accrue to gross margins around 2H'09! I hope there is a positive reaction to the stock price ahead of the positive impact to the balance sheet.

    5. CEO is a Phd. Nothing wrong with that, but probably we need to see transitional leadership from a "laboratory mindset" to a "business mindset"

    6. To your comment on the bottoming of the stock, I think this is classical multiple contractions. Unfortunately I think there is "some" more downside before we recover. It is interesting to note some recent SEC filings, a lot of their partners that owned shares have sold. Why would they do that? Is this simply naive profit taking or they know something the US-retail investor does not?

    7. Coverage of Solar stocks by the investment banks in general is average at best. This (scary) thing reminds me of the dot com days, when analysts covering the internet companies were issuing glowing reports, on the "no brainer" prospects with very little or no downside risk.

    8. Evolving Technology. This is a hot bed of research. One has to look at the biotech industry as a somewhat parallel. I would put an equivalent risk premium to this with respect to portfolio allocation etc.


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