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  • stan91724 stan91724 May 15, 2008 12:15 PM Flag

    ot...YGE bounced right off of 25.50!!!

    This is where ya get tomarrows news today...


    Hey Mark...I didn't buy it back & still in my dug trade but could eject on dug before the close....

    What do ya think about YGE rev for the q???

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    • EMKR now up 13% today. Like I mentioned last week, EMKR is setting up the same way that SOLF did. Positioned to double quickly.

    • might be worth a nibble here - they are keeping it down big time below 25 for options exp. With some top name solars reporting next week it could be a flyer. Still don't understand why its down after earnings yesterday .. looked real good IMO.

    • it really doesnt matter where you are in the cycle in this strategy

      it just matters how your portfolio did

      if you bought within 10-15% of the lows, you sell now and you are all good

      if it goes up from here so what, you made your money

      you just go fish until the next selloff happens.

      So as long as you make your money in the middle of the move you neither have to catch the bottom 10-15% or the top 10-15%

    • It will follow the sector with some possible little bumps on exuberance. Unless someone reports some truly powerful numbers with no margin pressure, we should retrace but it's still an overall bull. Buy dips, sell peaks and get out of the way. The dips are not worth shorting without your finger poised on the trigger to cover every second. The big money and lower risk is longside.

    • EMKR seems to have the same bounce spike pattern and timing as much of the sector - I expect some retrace unless there is a sector swing. Nothing special about that chart that I can see that makes me want to jump in.

    • At the risk of having to deal with Mark, I'll pass on this bit of information. EMKR's chart setting up beautifully, lots of shorts, and still early in its cycle. EMKR. Nice solar play.

      For what its worth, I've been in SOLF for the last 4 days, with an average price of $17. I also have a smaller 4000 share postion in EMKR at $7.27. Just an FYI.

    • Honestly you are correct
      I was thinking about that as well

      Literally you could do this all year

      Solar stocks go through tremendous selloffs 2-3x a year
      somewhere near the bottom (you dont need to hit the bottom, but only need to be within 10-15%) you buy your basket of everything.

      Then you wait, sometimes you need to wait 1 month, sometimes 3 but a huge solar rally will occur. And you sell, go to 100% cash. And wait for the next selloff which could come in 1 month, or 3 months. And keep repeating

      It sounds simplistic but as I look at the charts from late 2006/spring 2007 (where a whole horde of stocks came IPO) it looks realistic

      The other thing is to buy any IPO that is a true solar (not an AKNS clone) because analysts are completely wrong at the beginning of each one of these public life.

      Should of done that with SOL.

      From what i read we have more solar IPOs coming later in the year.
      Especially a benefit if they price during a bear market period.

      But yes your general idea is good and you literally could farm, fish, give up daytrading just by entering the market 2-3x a year, and exiting 2-3x a year with these solars.

      And yes it does not matter what you own, FSLR or CSUn - it works.

    • I'm backtesting a simple strategy on solars that seems to hold water for longer trades. Buy every damn one of them on each trough regardless of how bad the business plan and profit (or lack of it) Only ignore those with a history of low movement unless it's a TSL that looks good as a very long term investment. Set your sell slightly lower than the average of the upward swings and buy back after it peaks out at the average of the downward swing deviation. Most of the time it hits. Now that I've said it on the board, the paradigm will change and I'll lose my ass. I'm looking for a less time intensive trading method for the next few months between earnings since the farm work is intensive this time of year.

    • Yes, lady Trina is running the risk of reporting after the bloom is off the solar rose for this cycle, so it is conceivable that she blows out earnings at the very time there is an enormous undertow in the sector (or the general market).

      Then again, her earnings could be strong enough to counter even the most savage current.

      Time will tell.

    • It looks like you would not of been late to the party

      I was hoping it would be a Trina party but its looking like a Solarfun party instead. These 2 are going to drive me to the grave early.

      Always own the wrong one :)

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