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BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. Message Board

  • silversnake333 silversnake333 Jun 22, 2009 11:44 AM Flag

    Snake's take

    As an investor participating exclusively in this sector for a number of years I can’t recall a holding that has been so aggressively and professionally bashed. Bashing is done ONLY to improve the basher’s position, either as a short seller anticipating a downside move or a buyer trying to increase his position at lower cost--profits can certainly be made both ways. IMO the frenzy of those attacking BDSI is due to the low share count, anticipation of significant future gains, and the threat Onsolis provides to other drug manufacturers. Since Onsolis is safer than other delivery methods, those OTHER methods may have difficulty achieving RIMS approval, and/or may see their market share diminished.

    The clinical trials proved Onsolis to be safer, and with improved efficacy over other fentanyl delivery methods. No IV is required--costs are lowered, no chance for a patient to injure themselves, and the ONLY accepted opiate RIMS. There is no reason for the FDA NOT to approve it.

    Longs must keep in mind that there were significant shares acquired this year below $4 and we’re currently trading much higher, at or near our 52 week high; if some choose to take profits for whatever reason it’s their business. But this position has much upside yet.

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    • Great post. I am not selling my shares for cheap.

    • Thanks snake. For all the others who are catching up on the posts on this board, and perhaps vulnerable to what the bashers are saying, take a look at, where if you put in BDSI and hit the "Insider Form 4" link way at the bottom on the left you will see a list of the recent sales.

      Every single one of the sales by officers of the company in June is listed as "AS", or "Automatic Sell". This means the sales are done in accordance with a plan laid out well in advance of the sales. The timing would seem to indicate that insiders were hoping for a post-approval run-up in the stock price.

      The sales by CDC/Elliott are different, but they are investors, not officers. They can take some off the table if they want, or if they have other places they need the money now. But they still own 1.2 million shares. Needless to say, if they know anything we don't they are not allowed to trade on that info.

      • 1 Reply to nagpoast
      • Elliott Associates and CDC are both indirect or silent owners with 10% or less shareholder equity. They are beneficial owners and have the right to sell and take profit as well as reinvest again. The direct owners or company Officers sales were all planned . There are also planned purchases scheduled for September.
        My take on this is that BDSI is raising capital thru the sales of equities. Thr profits are enormous and will allow sufficient capital to offset operating expenses.

    • ""As an investor participating exclusively in this sector for a number of years I can’t recall a holding that has been so aggressively and professionally bashed""

      Mine is INSM. Have held it for 4 years. Been ripped to shreds to 30 cents only to come back and kick ass to the upside. The bashers tried but failed with the true longs!

      Go BDSI!!!!

      • 1 Reply to stock_rnarket_junkie
      • Same thing happened with me and Genworth (GNW--insurance and financial company). Bought in low $1 range in November, saw it rise to almost $4 in January and plunge again to $0.78 in March. But I held and increased my position on dips. I now have at least 80,000 shares, and it seems to be safely over $6 dollars now and has seen almost $7 twice.

        I believe it will go to $20 in the future--but it could take a couple years. I am not pumping. I am just saying that many of the others who started in GNW with me in November got scared and sold. Now I have over half a million dollars in Genworth from holding it...many of my friends have none or only under twenty thousand dollars because they sold too low, too often, and had to buy back too high--too often.

        Just a thought...scary? You BET. Prudent to hold? Probably.


    • The number of insider sales is really disturbing. If you are long this stock as an investment under $4, then you have all the reason to stay on board and wait for a favorable outcome. However, if you got in above $6, then what once seemed like a no brainier now seems like a second guess.

      While I still feel there is a great chance for Onsolis to be approved, insiders selling so many shares on the delay period, for whatever reason, sends a bad signal to investors as it would any stock when there is a lot of concentrated insider selling at any point in time.

      Given how HEB'ers are still waiting, there is a lot of room to speculate the same could happen to BDSI, although I don't think it should. All those linger doubts now exist that before Monday weren't really a concern.

      • 2 Replies to pushedx
      • bio_man Jun 22, 2009 12:23 PM Flag

        Actually, besides the CEO and VP's sells that occurred before the PR on the 15th, the only sells have been from Elliott Associates. They have sold a total of 768,391 shares from the 15th to the 18th; they still hold 1,231,609, if my calculations are right. Indeed I'm sure their stock purchase agreement was well below $4.00 (well below), so they are making wise investment decisions. Since, however, it has been only EA that have been selling since the 15ht, would this not be as horrible as if insiders were selling?

        Disclaimer: I got in in the low $6, so yes I am starting to second guess my investment. I will probably down size my position.

      • bio_man Jun 22, 2009 12:07 PM Flag

        Good post, agree. Unfortunately for those investors like myself who have limited means, and all those means are no tied by in BDSI and others, this becomes an unfortunate dead-time. There are great opportunities missed because I'm waiting here on BDSI. Eg., I think SPPI has a strong candidate likely to be a pproved, and ISTA is taking a beating today; nice entry point. Hope the delay here is not mucg longer.

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