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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Message Board

  • derivativestrader196 derivativestrader196 Aug 3, 2007 10:23 AM Flag

    XLF: Accumulating Massive Position


    in the September strike calls. I'm going to end up being the market maker. This remains the best buy on the Board. I love all the hand-wringing about Bear Stearns, subprime etc. etc. This is a classic Wall Street shakeout. I'm predicting a minimum of 35 within no more than 12 trading days.

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    • If this is a correction in a bull market you MAY make money. If this is the start of a Bear market led by financials this is only the beginning of the fall.

      Hedge that bet man.

    • There is nothing classic about this down move.

      The banks have to become transparent on this, otherwise it's Armageddon. Better to take it down and know where you are going, than to have the biggest panic since the crash of 29
      and lose 90% value because of how things are not marked to value, but instead a computerized model that doesn't take into account the fundamental forces now in play.

      The fed is very limited in what they can do. If they lower int rates, they overheat the economy, set off inflation and exacerbate the scenario that got the market into this mess in the first place. There is only one right way out and that is to let the market decide value. That isn't done by picking arbitrary numbers out of a hat. If I am going to assume a large degree of risk I want to know the numbers and the value. So far all I see is foot dragging and lipstick on the pig. One can only roll debt over so long without marking it to the market. Continuing to pursue that avenue will just drag sectors of the market down with the financials further than anyone would now guess. If the Fed lowers interest rates like Cramer wants Bernanke to do, like they did in 1999 then the market will go up up up, just like until 2000 and then it will collapse again, hurting many more people than it did in 2000. Deal with the pain now. Don't be a bottom picker. Bottom pickers get whacked. Fed will speak next week. Maybe you will get lucky and the "B" will lower interest rates. I think it would be a huge mistake. Noise out of Europe is basically not to interfere with the markets and that's the road they are taking. I think that's the ticket they will take here.
      For the record, I am short but now you know why.
      Good luck to all!!!

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