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Natural Resource Partners LP Message Board

  • jrad52 jrad52 May 7, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    EIA final 2014 report out today

    They have been releasing the report piecemeal for the past month but today the complete report is out. They have slashed their projections of thermal coal [production in CAPP over the next few years. Actual thermal coal production in CAPP was 79 MM tons in 2013, and the same amount is expected for 2014. Then the drops start coming fast, with production in the 40 MM tons range by 2016. This is higher than Foresight Energy's S-1 showed, but really low nonetheless.

    CAPP met coal production is projected to be pretty stable, at about 50 MM - 55 MM tons per year, going out at least to 2018. I don't see that they project met coal pricing by region, but the overall projected CAPP pricing (thermal and met together) is projected to be flat for the next few years. Since we're in a bit of a trough for met coal pricing currently, this isn't a good sign.

    And since more than half of NRP's reserves are in CAPP, none of this is bullish for NRP's current operations. NRP really needs Foresight to ramp up production in Illinois Basin. Or diversify away from coal more quickly.

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