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ITT Educational Services Inc. Message Board

  • aaatiles aaatiles Apr 10, 2008 4:46 PM Flag

    Lenders Leaving the Student Loan Biz in Droves

    article link

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080410/student_loan_squeeze.html

    How do you think this will impact revenues and earnings going forward?

    Take your nice gains over the past two weeks and sell before the April 24th earnings release. It probably won't be pretty and guidance may be lowered. Look what happened to APOL and it has only 4% of its revenues from private loans, ESI had 29% of its revenue in 2007 from private lenders. And these lenders are leaving the federal programs too!

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    • apparently, lenders are the only ones leaving the for-profit student lending biz. So are investors all the way to earnings announcements by several of these companies in the next two weeks.

    • The post I was replying to spoke of a student loan act passed in October 2007 (to start in July '08). Just wanted to post some insite into that act that can be found on the web. If you can find a newer perspective on that student loan act, POST IT.

    • How are they going to replace the lenders that have left the student loan business?

      http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080417/sallie_mae_student_loans.html?.v=1

      • 2 Replies to sfvip
      • article link for H.R. Bill 5715 passed.

        http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/91xx/doc9144/hr5715.pdf

        This only gives Dept. of Education Secretary to purchase guaranteed loans originated on or after 10/1/03 from lenders in the FFEL program with pull discretion over the purchase price (which is scary), authority to repurchase such loans begins 7/1/08 and expires 7/1/09. Budgeted authority at a cost of $665 million (not billion, but million only).

        Even if the Secretary doles out 10 cents on the dollar for packaged bad loans from lenders, the max. notional amount to be bought would be $6.65 billion, which is only 8% of the estimated $80 billion lent each year to students. If the purchase price is 50 cents on the dollar, max notional amount purchased would be $1.33 billion.

        Doesn't seem to make that big of an impact once you read the fine print, but it will make some people happy.

      • are_you_ready_skidaddy are_you_ready_skidaddy Apr 17, 2008 11:00 AM Flag

        The lenders plan to return to the business as the article you link to says. It's all a matter of dollars and cents.
        If anyone reads the story it seems the only loan being dropped en mass are federal consolidation student loans. Other types of student loans appear to be avalible.

    • Earnings will be on pace with a $4.25 plus annual earnings. This computes to an $80 to $90 stock.

      • 1 Reply to egg_salad_fart
      • you want to make a $5,000 side bet on that $4.25 annual earnings for 2008, fart? Give me your name and address and I will send over a contract to you.

        So, you figure $90 share price just by multiplying 20 X $4.25? Why not 13 PE, or 26 PE? And what analytical background do you have?

        Yes, please provide your source for the $4.25 figure, if you are, in fact, an insider?

        As usual, you never answer any questions. You just deflect, try to change the issue to spelling, etc.

        yawn.

    • aatiles is a basher. Probably a fired worker like ittfraud. Nobody who is not a shareholder would spend this much time bashing if they did not have an axe to grind.

      aatiles and ittfraud do appear to be two different people. aatiles has a higher IQ. ittfraud lacks basic English skills. aatiles appears to be able to apply 5th grade level math concepts to financial data. aatiles also appears capable of stringing together two or three coherent thoughts. ittfraud struggles writing complete sentences. Math skills do not appear present in the posts of ittfraud.

      • 2 Replies to egg_salad_fart
      • Wow!! So tell us all here buddy how are your Math skills. All I see you doing is telling the board a whole lot of nothing. Also, you last message here indicates that you may have some "Insider" information and that is a Capital offense. Oh that's right you Corporate guys are untouchable and totally unethical.

      • does eggsaladfart = jamesnjamesn? because it sure sounds exactly like it. If it is, that name is ridiculous. I feel sorry for you.

        A.) If you can top 150 IQ Mensa-tested on the Stanford-Binet scale, THEN you can speak down to me.

        B.) If you can find a 5th grader that has provided as much analysis as I have, get him enrolled now in Wharton.

        D.) Please provide something meaningful to add to this post other than your usual rhetoric about grammar, syntax, etc.

        E.) Where have you been since 2002?

        F.) If you read all my posts, I have maintained all along, I am not now nor have I ever been an employee or student at ESI.

        G.) I have no axe to grind. I simply expect ALOT more from management and they do not seem to deliver to either shareholders OR students. Period. I will accept nothing less.

    • And going to an Ivy League school costs how much a semester?

    • And going to an Ivy League school costs how much a semester?

    • Stateing that Congress will take care of the student loan situation, including the for pofit school loans is what will happen. It should affect all the for profit schools positively including ESI. That is not a ESI pump. When it happens it will be a fact.
      You like to cloak your bashing in with your analysis. Yes I've read your posts. But I don't see in any of it how ESI gos to $2 a share or $4 a share.

    • ITT is not an Ivy League school not even 1/10th an Ivy League school. Where the hell do they get the balls to charge Ivy League prices dumbo. They priced themselves out ot the ballpark. Now they are going to lose it all over time.

    • "Where the hell do you get this investment "wisdom" from? You must read it cause it can't come from experience or reason."

      I'm not saying an apology is due NOW, I'm saying that if I end up being right and ESI tanks within the year, then the research I've done was proven correct and your snide comment about my "wisdom" would deserve an apology (some time in the future).

      You want me to do your homework? I've think I've done enough. I already know what the competitors charge per credit hour, which is why I have been putting forth the information about ESI already. If I thought APOL or STRA or DV were in worse positions, I would have posted more info on those boards. Perhaps you should go back and read ALL of my posts on ESI to see how much thought has gone into this. They aren't the standard one-line posts of true bashers such as "there will be blood on the streets tomorrow". I have actually offered analyses. By almost all valuations methods, the ESI
      current stock price is way overvalued and is artificially inflated, I believe.

      If your sole hope is that Congress will take care of the for-profit education sector, then you are nothing but a pumper of ESI, plain and simple.

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