My guess is they will come in at $260M beating current estimates of $257M. My assumptions are 70% persistence rate (company stated to expect -1%-1.5% reduction in next two quarters), starts of 15,698 (flat YOY, very realistic given recent trend), and avg revenue per student of $4,450 (company est -4% YOY remainder of the year). Therefore; $260M = ((61,039*.7)+15,698))*$4,450.
I can't wait to watch a little supply and demand at work when shorts try and cover their 9M shares from a float of 14m.
So last night I noticed my revenue estimate of $257M is for QIII not QII. QII is actually $273M. I took a lot of profit off the table today because I couldn't really see a scenario where they can hit $273M. I think they will beat EPS and show stabilization of starts but I don't know if that will be enough with a potential revenue miss. I have made way too much money to risk it. I am still a big fan of ESI long term and I'm holding a little in case I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong and we see the epic squeeze that seems to be all but inevitable.