PE, it's past time to make this black hole a new thread. It has swallowed up the posts to the degree that if you wanted to track one, you'd need to change the star minimum to one! I'm replying to your post 175351 at
>>I don't know how they fix it so you can use a cellphone on a plane. If the aircraft itself is involved they probably limit the time you can call.<<
I think some months back I read about cellphones now allowed on some airplanes, but I don't remember seeing anything said about a time limit. Not that the writer would put every detail in a PR.
At the other extreme would be commuters in a subway who might want to relieve the ennui to and from work. But since the iPhone is relatively a luxury item, how many iPhones would travel the subway . . . and how many would remain safely in their owners' hands day after day?! Have you seen any stats pertaining to the percentage of subway and bus commuters who have iPods?
>>I guess I should have said 'organic molecules.' The kinds of chemicals you find in cells. Because they don't require any substrate for lighting they could be created by a process akin to inkjet printing on anything you can print on.<<
Using the word 'molecules' wouldn't have made a difference in my mind as molecules compose elements and compounds. By 'cells' do you mean living cells? Because my prof was intolerably dry, I blanked out in chemistry class. If there are chemical cells, I am totally ignorant of that. The first time someone told me that computers get viruses, I thought it was a joke.
>>You bet and SAI but not LB, sort of hit and miss.<<
I put LB back in my streamer, then turned on its chart. Eventually there was a straight line, like no one wants to see on a heart monitor. I had forgotten how long one needed to wait for a trade to occur! I'd better remove LB from my streamer again.
Why is T a defensive stock? Because no one can do without telephone communication?
What is your opinion of NUAN now? It has taken a lot of punishment, maybe some due to Nuance's having diluted share value (and not letting anyone know till too late to trade out of it)? At what price does NUAN become an irresistible bargain? Is voice technology considered defensive? If it is, the stock doesn't reflect that today.
>>No way to call a bottom and I sure wouldn't here, but it would be nice. I noticed some of the techs (e.g. IBM) started up . . . har bingers or maybe even bell whethers.<<
LOL Do you realize that if you hybridize your har bingers with your bell whethers you might get a field full of weather-resistant harebell flowers?
After its open, IBM went down all day, but maybe because of profit taking before its earnings report. Its very last trade of the day was a tall green (high volume) institutional buy. And maybe that 'tute had been playing it down all day just to buy it at day's end?
I sure would like to know which of my stocks have bottome (she said optimistically) and which have further to go. Specifically, I have a lot of NUAN and if it's going to keep on its downward trajectory, I'd like to sell most of it and buy more of something that's bottomed.
I suspect AKAM has bottomed because my emailbox keeps getting hit with AP's "Akamai up on evidence of Apple business." So far, I've gotten that article twice for AKAM and twice for AAPL. That emal is going to fix in the brains of Scottrade alert recipients (as it must've today in Pacific Crest's clients), and tomorrow they'll be buying. The article is also in Yahoo's list and begins with:
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Akamai Technologies Inc. rose Thursday after a Pacific Crest analyst said Akamai is delivering content for Apple Inc.'s new online movie rental service.>
>>It does that from time to time . . . it usually bounces back in a few days.<<
It's dependably erratic. :-)
>>I wasn't aware of that. I thought IBM made a Mac speech recognition program. I have a copy somewhere.<<
Maybe Nuance and IBM made more than one speech program for the Mac? This is a Google search, but at Nuance's site and confined to it.
>>The article said that when the numbers were down they usually bounce back.<<
Bummer. Well, at least next week's release won't be in the midst of options expiration week. I hope you saw Kwang's post. He thinks the big players have just about bottomed. Is it safe for us to come up out of our gopher holes now or do you anticipate further downside?
He also thought the market should start heading back up either today or tomorrow, and today's finish is a lot greener than yesterday's. Though as you've cautioned me, one swallow does not a summer make.
I'm looking at the finishes now. During the 'smart money' hour's final minutes (but not most of the hour, LOL), AAPL and AKAM both went up, up, up, in tandem. Several stocks went down, including Apple's iPhone competitor.
It's hard to believe, but SAI finished down, not just a bit but 3.28%. ETFC, which had looked so good the previous two or three days, lost probably what it gained, 6.07%.
I didn't click on the link in that artice re the BBC in my last post. More info is here, from the BBC director of BBC Future Media And Technology.
At this point it's speculative, but he sounds interested in making it work. And you know the BBC is an Akamai customer. The readers' comments help clarify what could come about.
>>Sounds like they must have left something out so they couldn't call it Dragon Naturally Speaking.<<
Could it be that if they called it Dragon Naturally Speaking it would then belong to Nuance and the MacSpeech company could have no claim on it?
What about the dictation for Macs that IBM did with Nuance? If Nuance still sells that, wouldn't the two dictation products compete?
>>Average up 5%, worst since 2005 . . . it doesn't sound like things are getting better, but it doesn't sound really horrible either.<<
I think that's what last week's labor report said, too. But this time around they're saying that the seasonally adjusted initial claims filed are down 21,000, the lowest since 22 September. Does this mitigate the 5% average? Or should we expect higher numbers next week because it will be further away from Christmas hiring and firing?
Last night I installed a QuickTime update that was for some security and many bugs. Today, Safari hasn't quit on me once, though I had to restart when it got sluggish. Do some Safari routines depend on QuickTime? I'm wondering if the QuickTime bugs are what made Safari crash.
>>No and it's about time . . . I assume it's a Mac version of Dragon Naturally Speaking.<<
Hmmm, I'd thought Nuance had created that product, but I read the emailed alert too fast. It turns out the company's name is MacSpeech and they licensed some of Nuance's technology. From the business wire:
January 15, 2008 02:47 PM�Eastern Time�
MacSpeech Dictate Brings State-of-the-Art Speech Recognition, Powered by Nuance, to the Mac
- New Speech Recognition Product, Based on Nuance�s Dragon NaturallySpeaking Technology is All-Mac, Highly Accurate and Easy to Use -
Macworld Conference & Expo 2008
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MacSpeech, Inc., the leading provider of speech recognition solutions for the Mac, and Nuance Communications (Nasdaq:NUAN), developers of Dragon� NaturallySpeaking�, today announced an agreement to bring the world's best speech recognition solution to Mac users worldwide.
MacSpeech, Inc. has licensed underlying dictation technology from Nuance Communications, Inc. for its new MacSpeech Dictate� product (see today's related announcement).
"MacSpeech, Inc. is the authority on speech recognition for the Macintosh," explained Andrew Taylor, president and CEO of MacSpeech, Inc. "Nuance provides an exceptional dictation technology engine that lets us focus on what we do best, which is to provide the user experience Macintosh users expect. Nuance is a class organization with a best of breed technology, and frankly we're thrilled to work with them to bring great speech recognition software to the Mac."
"We are pleased to help MacSpeech provide a dictation solution, powered by Dragon NaturallySpeaking technology, to users that require a native Macintosh dictation application," explained Peter Mahoney, vice president and general manager of the desktop dictation business unit for Nuance Communications. "MacSpeech has intimate knowledge of the Macintosh platform and deep understanding of Macintosh users. This collaboration brings an unparalleled opportunity to provide the world's best dictation technology in a solution that is 100 percent Mac."
For the first time, MacSpeech, Inc. today began conducting live demonstrations of its upcoming MacSpeech Dictate product, powered by dictation technology from Nuance Communications, in Booth #607 on the Macworld Conference and Expo 2008 show floor.
But before that, IBM and Nuance had apparently partnered in a speech dictation product, which Nuance describes on its site; search for "Mac speech" (two words). Nuance.com doesn't have any info the MacSpeech product.
>>I didn't see it.<<
The basic point was that "labor markets remain[ed] tight in most areas despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate to 5% reported by the Labor Department in December"
But now that seems to have been superseded by today's jobless claims report. What is your take on it?
>>Yes and yes . . . if Labor Dept. was wrong they'll correct it and the inverted yield curve doesn't always signal recession, just often.<<
Does the above report look like it corrected the previous one or might the difference be attributable to Christmas hiring and firing?
>>Jaded investors. Expectations of Apple's results are always sky high.<<
And look how the analysts incite those expectations!
>>I could, but never have. I think maybe they're referring to HD on HDTV.<<
I believe you're right. Later this morning I read that somewhere. And iPod users can rent movies via their iPods. Which reminds me, you've probably read here and there that iPods sales have dropped somewhat. I hope you've also read that the reason is because the iPhone buyers are using the iPhones for both gizmos.
Did you read anywhere that Nuance yesterday announced 'MacSpeech', speech recognition for Macs? I'd thought Nuance already had speech recognition for all platforms.
I went back to the link you gave me and clicked on tcpdump and read a lot there. But I could not make head nor tail out of it. I guess I'd need to be a certified programmer to understand it.
>>Maybe some but I don't think a lot more. I think the problem this year is the market.<<
I thought the market was rebounding a couple hours ago . . . did you watch all the stocks climb and indices turn green? I attributed it to the Fed's Beige Book report, but the bounce didn't last. Is the Fed's report what triggered it for the short while it lasted? What do you think of that report?
. . . the Fed noted that labor markets remain tight in most areas despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate to 5% reported by the Labor Department in December.
"Economic activity increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey," the Beige Book reported. Of 12 Fed banking districts, five reported slow or slowing activity, five reported modest or slightly increasing activity, and two said conditions were mixed. . . .
On balance, the Beige Book paints a slightly more upbeat view of the economy than most other recent reports have, particularly on the labor markets. There is little in the report that indicates an urgent need for aggressive Fed action to lower interest rates . . . .
Is it possible the Labor Department's report was in error? Or does the inverted yield curve predict recession (which I read in a Seeking Alpha article by a NON economist, not a professional)?
Oh, I almost forgot, according to reports and analyses I've read, because Apple sold "only" 4 million iPhones to date, and because Macworld held no "surprise," investors were "disappointed." Are we reading genuine analyses or fomenting? BUT . . . says no less than Henry Blodget, "Apple's Real Growth Story Is Intact." You'll like the percentages he cites, and his comments, about Apple's growth. For instance:
And 34% is just the unit growth. Revenue was up 40%!
Just as important, that's 40% growth on half the business. iPods only account for a quarter of the business (a third if you throw in iTunes). iPhones, meanwhile, are a rounding error, and will be for most of 2008
That was his reply to a reader's comment, but of course he cited more in his short article.
>>Dawkins indicated all you have to do is go to the site in which you are interested with your browser (is it NetFlix?) use the terminal and invoke the 'tcpdump' command. You need to learn all the tcpdump parameters (for instance you might want to save the results in a file). I have no idea if this would work, and I'm not so sure it would be easy to interpret the results if it does, but good luck<<
Thanks, PE. Yes, it's NetFlix. I took a quick look at your link; at first glance it doesn't look too complicated. I didn't linger because I was hours tracking down Apple info, but I do intend to go back and try to 'decode' whatever I need to try this. What I'd like to learn is exactly what Akamai does for NetFlix. Indisputably, cdn.netflix.com resolves to Limelight. You can see that at DNSStuff when you check out cdn.netflix.com via the DNS Lookup box.
But when Netcraft looks up cdn.netflix.com , both Limelight and Akamai (as "ADSL endpoints NAT conections only") appear, but Limelight's "last changed" dates are current and Akamai's are 2006.
I don't know whether those dates have a bearing, but why doesn't an Akamai link appear via DNSStuff? That's why I'm wondering whether Limelight and Akamai do two different things for NetFlix. The NetFlix blogger thought the problem he'd encountered was Akamai's caching, then found it was Limelight's CDN service. Would Akamai cache what Limelight serves??
Speaking of NetFlix, I'm now confused regarding the AppleTV's role in Apple's rentals. Silicon Alley Insider quotes Citi analyst Richard Gardner as saying "watching Apple rentals on a TV will require the purchase of an AppleTV . . . .":
Is that correct? Couldn't you get an Apple rental movie to your TV via your MacMini?
>>Yes but this seemed worse than most (although maybe not on a percentage basis). In the past it has climbed back up fairly soon.<<
Do you think the overall market yesterday and this being witching week might have contributed? Also, how overpriced was the stock this year vs before other Macworlds? I'm clueless regarding that detail. How does AAPL's action look from your perspective right now?
>>It really took a dive as the show was coming to a close, but that was expected. It should climb back from here, assuming the maeket doesn't totally destruct.<<
I was hoping the stock would dive sometime before or during the show. That's why I was too frozen to post, my eyes were fixed on the Level II quotes.
I wonder what AAPL would be doing now if the market were in better shape. The economic news today has been really bad, and Joe Duarte is seeing worse bleak ahead. But I'll postpone that till next post. I'm too happy about the Mac-world announcements to want to think about the Real-world.
>>Pretty impressive, they jumped to 20% of the smartphone market in a couple of weeks. One has to suppose that eventually there will be nothing but smartphones which implies Apple will have a huge share of a huge market.<<
That IS impressive! I hadn't thought of it in the time context. RIM has already ceded that the iPhone is the winner, because RIM has been trying to make its smartphone(s?) more like the iPhone. But like you noted some days ago, RIM doesn't have Apple's OS. Do you want to conjecture how long it will take for the iPhone to reach 30% of the smartphone market? 40% . . . double its share today?
>>Lordy, hope you aren't saddling me with a future guilt trip.<<
:-) If I do that, I'll also have to saddle you with all the selling of Apple you've done over the years. No guilt trip necessary. Don't forget why I bought AAPL the first time and held it and have never sold one share out of that core purchase, and recently a sort of repeat (of the reason) is why I've been buying more, after dragging my feet and losing out on a much better price. And that reminds me of the psychic's prediction I read in MacWEEK. I think I'll post it later for the board, because much of Akamai's revenues come from Apple and it's a fascinating story. But I repeat, that psychic's prediction is NOT why I bought AAPL back then.
>>This ought to dissuade you from trying. Keep in mind that OSX runs under a variant of UNIX so not all commands might operate as advertised.
Oh, thank you! I will check it out and see if I can comprehend it.
>>It just crashed on the end of the show . . . sell on the news. That effect won't last.<<
That's true. Doesn't it always crash for a while after Macworld? It's still not down to my next price (to enable me to buy one more share than the magnificent 18 shares I did buy), though it's getting closer. It's the last hour of a bad market day. Where will AAPL end? Is the current dive a headfake to benefit the 'tutes?
>>LOL, you've been reading Lucianne.<<
When don't I? :-)
That one stuck in my memory, BTW, like "Und ve vill call zem 'little boners'" which still makes me laugh.
>>Amazing. The inferences I draw are that internet users prefer iPhones or (and maybe because) the other smartphones are just too damn hard to use. Either bodes well for iPhone.<<
I'll guess it's both reasons. I had problems even using a supposedly simple cellphone the time I brought one with me to SC. Hmmm . . . is this a third possibility? Mac sales have reportedly been through the roof. More and more people are being drawn to the Mac's ease-of-use and GUI. I got this far with my conjecture but am having trouble tying it with the iPhone. ??
I interrupt this post to let you know, as you must've guessed, I did get my AAPL. And for $171.79, not the $171.83 I'd bid. It's gone lower, of course, but I'd rather pay too much and get them than have AAPL skyrocket and miss them. Now, just to demonstrate my timing eclat (Yahoo won't accept the accent), AAPL will dive in the days and weeks ahead.
Back to the iPhone. Did you see the SmartPhone chart at Macworld? First comes RIM, then comes the iPhone! Let's watch that iPhone percentage _climb_!
Ooohh! I just discovered the photo clicks to an expanded view! Feast your eyes!!
Und you know vat? I am going to turn that gorgeous chart into an inspirational 'wallpaper'!
>>I was going to sell some just before MacWorld thinking it will probably dip after the show (which it probably will), but I'll wait now. The market is too negative and the coming up ER looks to be strong. It will probably climb into the ER.<<
You probably missed the chance for a quick profit, but would you have bought back quickly enough, before the stock went up again? For the record, it was reading your comment about your deciding to hold your shares and about the ER looking to be strong that made me run, not walk, to my nearest Scottrade order box and put in my bid. Whatever happens to my shares, it's your fault. :-)
>>I'm afraid not. I used UNIX mainly to access the UNIX file system and run applications (and I'm not sure I can do even that anymore). I don't know how you would access the internet.<<
I did try searching for that command list you mentioned, and for _any_ basic help in getting started with Terminal, but Apple had none(!) nor could I find any on the 'Net. _Something_ must be out there somewhere, but I couldn't find it.
>>You really shouldn't have to use terminal to access that sort of information. There should be tools available in OS X. Try Network Utility in applications/utilities. If that doesn't do it look in Version Tracker for a tool.<<
I did try Network Utility yesterday; it's where I did the traceroute. No other component of the NU helped, though. I'll look in Version Tracker when I've come down out of Macworld's cloud.
I see the stock price is recovering, but I haven't been reading the Macworld notes. Any idea what's impelling the price back up?
Holy cow, if you don't think Macworld is drawing people to the 'Net, some of my text in this Yahoo "Type message" box turned yellow! First time that ever happened!
>>No, but 'tarbaby' is evidently the 'slur' that's being avoided even thought the story is about the stickiness of the tar and not the color.<<
That story has been one of my perennial favorites. It teaches good strategy, too! I've even thought of using Brer Rabbit's strategy if I'm ever captured by a terrorist.
>>Could be . . . I'm taking it one day at a time. If we pop out of the slump it will be because of good ERs. Here's hoping IBM is a harbinger.<<
Is a har binger like a bell weather?
More good news from Apple. You'll need to google for "Of all the iPhone�s features, none had" in order to get to this NY Times article:
On Christmas, traffic to Google from iPhones surged, surpassing incoming traffic from any other type of mobile device, according to internal Google data made available to The New York Times. A few days later, iPhone traffic to Google fell below that of devices powered by the Nokia-backed Symbian operating system but remained higher than traffic from any other type of cellphone.
The data is striking because the iPhone, an Apple product, accounts for just 2 percent of smartphones worldwide, according to IDC, a market research firm. Phones powered by Symbian make up 63 percent of the worldwide smartphone market, while those powered by Microsoft�s Windows Mobile have 11 percent and those running the BlackBerry system have 10 percent.
More worth reading there, Google's update for the iPhone.
Two good sources for RBC's comments about Apple. Notable Calls says:
- RBC Capital notes fresh data from RBC's Technology Adoption Panel (4,600 respondents) and store checks suggests Apple saw massive Mac sales in the holiday quarter (Q1/08 end Dec, reporting Jan 22), despite concerns over consumer holiday spending growth. Firm estimates 2.5M Mac were shipped Q1 (2.4M prior), up 14% Q/Q and 54% Y/Y, breaking the record 2.2M Q4.
F08 ests become $32.8B and $5.11 EPS ($32.7B and $5.08 prior). F09 ests becomes $40.6B and $6.23 EPS ($40.4B and $6.19 prior).
RBC expects MacWorld to be somewhat less dramatic than 2007's MacWorld iPhone launch. Reits Outperform and $215 tgt.
And Eric Savitz:
RBC Capital�s Mike Abramsky this morning asserted that store checks and customer surveys suggest Apple had a �ginormous� holiday season for Mac sales. He now thinks December quarter Mac units were 2.5 million, up from his previous estimate of 2.4 million. That would be up 14% sequentially, and 54% year over year. He sees 1.6 million laptops, and 900,000 desktops. On the other hand, he cut his iPod forecast to 24.4 million to 25.3 million.
Eric detailed more numbers worth knowing, too:
RBC's comments make me want to buy AAPL. Would you still wait?
I'm going to see how Scottrade runs on Firefox. Safari quit on me again a few minutes ago.
PE, do you know how I go to Netflix via Terminal? What exactly I need to type or do to get the TCP information?