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Akamai Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • jus_lite_reading jus_lite_reading Dec 18, 2009 5:53 PM Flag

    AKAM is spinning its wheels- I called the $25 target

    AKAM is a good solid company, theres no doubt about it and for that reason the stock is worth what it is today. I strongly believe however the biggest chunk of AKAM's valuation is already fully priced as I called back in Oct a $25 fair market value. From here, its spinning its wheels for months. *AKAM could make some nice gains from here and I would expect to see $36-$37 within 24 months. That being said, I would recommend everyone following AKAM LLNW LVLT SVVS and the like to either watch INAP or buy it now. My targets are $6, $15 and $24, three, nine and eighteen months out respectively. For those who are bad at math those are gains of 42%, 248% and 450% over a shorter period than AKAM's gains. GLTAL

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    • pantone101naturalblondie pantone101naturalblondie Jan 22, 2010 3:39 PM Flag

      >>If you have read my posts over the years you would know I use TA strictly for entry and exit points; picking the stock is another matter that needs fundamental analysis. I have been saying to buy INAP on a PURE valuation play- daily fluctuations do not matter. Again, I reiterate the point that my rec to buy INAP is a matter of value.<<

      That makes more sense than valuation alone. I can't buy a stock without chart guidance.

      >>The market was in need of a correction, and still is. <<

      The market yesterday reacted most to Obama's extremely heavy hand with the banking industry. And I can't imagine that it's reacting to anything different today. No Fed reports were due today. At the moment I'm wondering whether it's treading water or diving.

    • >>"Some of your calls sure seem like chart based."

      If you have read my posts over the years you would know I use TA strictly for entry and exit points; picking the stock is another matter that needs fundamental analysis. I have been saying to buy INAP on a PURE valuation play- daily fluctuations do not matter. Again, I reiterate the point that my rec to buy INAP is a matter of value.

      >>"Don't forget poisoning dogs, toothpaste users, and milk drinkers — including China's own infants."

      As I said, the list is 9000+ miles long.

      >>"Thanks very much. I am seriously considering INAP, but am simultaneously watching the market. I don't want to buy stock if now is the precipice-of-the crash moment. "

      The market was in need of a correction, and still is. That being said, there are those stock that will move counter directional based on fundamentals and will make large moves up. Just think, if the past two days were up days in the markets, think what awesome gains INAP and AKAM could have made! INAP will move much, much higher in the coming weeks. AKAM slow and steady.

    • pantone101naturalblondie pantone101naturalblondie Jan 21, 2010 1:22 PM Flag

      >>Im not a prophet by any means. My calls on INAP and AKAM have been based strictly on fundamental analysis- you know that "good 'ol fashioned stuff" Warren Buffet uses. . . .<<

      Some of your calls sure seem like chart based.

      >>Indeed, China was a place you could buy cheap labor and maximize your profits- this is coming to haunt all those who sold their souls to the Devil (China). It never ceases to amaze me that we (the west) have given up our intellectual property to a country who pirates our very own products, steals secret information, treats workers as slaves, etc etc etc... The list is as long as the distance from NY to China. <<

      Don't forget poisoning dogs, toothpaste users, and milk drinkers — including China's own infants.

      >>Buy selective stocks that have limited exposure to China and those with undervaluations. In 2 years or less, the light will shine.<<

      Thanks very much. I am seriously considering INAP, but am simultaneously watching the market. I don't want to buy stock if now is the precipice-of-the crash moment.

    • >>"I didn't say I sold my INAP."

      sorry, it was a misunderstanding on my part.

      >>"That's the information I wanted, about China. Because I've seen a couple of hints that China's economy is heading for reversal. I had already seen that your INAP call was a good one, so I wanted to know how soon you expected China to collapse. I also wondered why you wanted me to buy stocks today *IF* China is scripted to crash tomorrow. From that information, I reasoned, it would be easier for me to determine how your 'buy INAP' harmonizes with bread costing a gold bar. Two years is a breathing space and a potential profit space.

      But you've now opened up another question. If China's collapse is so great that bread will cost a gold bar, what do you think your income and sales tax, utility, clothing, medical, other food, etc. bills will take from your cache? You won't be able to go into suspended animation; you'll need to pay for your and, unless you're a solo act, your family's, expenses. After all those fleeing gold bars, how will you have cash left to scoop up myriad stocks??""<<

      Im not a prophet by any means. My calls on INAP and AKAM have been based strictly on fundamental analysis- you know that "good 'ol fashioned stuff" Warren Buffet uses. Too many analysts today use algorithms and computer models to make calls. I look at the company from a pure standpoint- what it is worth today, tomorrow and the next day. Going back to China, using a similar method, these growth levels can not be sustained. It took the US 80 years to gain the same amount of traction China made in 20. There is little chance of that happening in a country that fears its citizens, limits freedoms, and punishes truth. True, its human rights (or lack thereof) has given it an unfair advantage many western companies have used to their benefit.

      Indeed, China was a place you could buy cheap labor and maximize your profits- this is coming to haunt all those who sold their souls to the Devil (China). It never ceases to amaze me that we (the west) have given up our intellectual property to a country who pirates our very own products, steals secret information, treats workers as slaves, etc etc etc... The list is as long as the distance from NY to China.

      At the same time, China, a country that has a human right record as notorious as Dafur's, and that prides itself on covering over the truth to hide the social unrest of its citizens, has no problems with cooking books and pumping their economy with reserves our country gave to them. Its a pathetic situation. As I said, read Warren Buffetts WARNING about China.

      Nevertheless, I believe what made America great is still here. Once we take back our country, and wise up, things will change. Before that occurs, China has a bubble to pop. The largest ever.

      Buy selective stocks that have limited exposure to China and those with undervaluations. In 2 years or less, the light will shine.

    • pantone101naturalblondie pantone101naturalblondie Jan 20, 2010 1:48 PM Flag

      >>>>"Not so skeptical that I sold my INAP."

      I did not know you were trading INAP. I thought the position you took was a long term investment? I say 'whatever works for you, then do it.' During INAP's downturn and subsequent 2 year stagnation, I traded INAP regularly. INAP's trading days are over.<<

      I didn't say I sold my INAP. You said I was skeptical about your calls. I.e., my skepticism did not extend to my unloading my INAP. I still have it; you are saying I harbor skepticism that I do not harbor.

      >>As far as China goes, I believe that to be true. When that bubble will burst is anyone's guess. I assume it will be within a 2 year period. Until then, there is money to be made. I also have limited my exposure to just 2 stocks- AKAM and INAP. In 2007-2008, I had over 30 diversified holdings. Those days are over. It is time to be protected and limit exposure. Well before any of this occurred, I had already sizable positions in gold coins but not as an investment or hedging instrument. When Warren Buffet published his 2003 letter to stockholders, I took tht position. His timing about the end may be off by 5 years, but his forecast as to what will happen is accurate. Rest assured. I only plan to hold INAP for another year or so at max which by then will have returned the results I target and then when all collapses, I will be able to scoop up everything on the cheap as the cycle begins again. AKAM is in a business acct which I have limited exposure to so I might keep that regardless of world conditions.<<

      That's the information I wanted, about China. Because I've seen a couple of hints that China's economy is heading for reversal. I had already seen that your INAP call was a good one, so I wanted to know how soon you expected China to collapse. I also wondered why you wanted me to buy stocks today *IF* China is scripted to crash tomorrow. From that information, I reasoned, it would be easier for me to determine how your 'buy INAP' harmonizes with bread costing a gold bar. Two years is a breathing space and a potential profit space.

      But you've now opened up another question. If China's collapse is so great that bread will cost a gold bar, what do you think your income and sales tax, utility, clothing, medical, other food, etc. bills will take from your cache? You won't be able to go into suspended animation; you'll need to pay for your and, unless you're a solo act, your family's, expenses. After all those fleeing gold bars, how will you have cash left to scoop up myriad stocks??

      If anything above seems disconnected, please chalk it up to my replying with half my brain and listening to Rush Limbaugh with the other half. It's too big a day to not listen to Rush. :-)

    • >>"Not so skeptical that I sold my INAP."

      I did not know you were trading INAP. I thought the position you took was a long term investment? I say 'whatever works for you, then do it.' During INAP's downturn and subsequent 2 year stagnation, I traded INAP regularly. INAP's trading days are over.

      >>"But here's where I am skeptical...If you are seeing the end of the financial world, bread costing gold bars, why are you urging me to spend my money on stock while waiting for the burst bubble you're expecting? Or are you recommending only a short term investment in INAP? Why are you holding your INAP long? When, how soon, do you expect bread to cost gold bars? Can you harmonize your two math sets?"

      Allow me to explain. First, I am not urging anyone to buy INAP-- my recommendation is open and public. Those who have taken my advice and who can do so, have profited nicely. What you do with your shares is your business. I only have written to you because 1) you also own some AKAM and 2) you also said you own INAP. Otherwise I would not have written you. When I started publishing about INAP, INAP was $2.30; is now $5.00+ and gaining. I also wrote you because Ibelieve if you invest in AKAM, you might want to increase your returns with INAP. As I said, AKAM is a steady but slow growth stock. INAP is a volatile small cap with huge potential and undervaluation. If you're happy with just 20% returns, don't buy INAP. Some on our MB have posted tips which have payed off (ie Wants posted about VG, I bought some, it quadrupled in a week.)
      I don't know you from Adam but I do get some self gratification out of being able to make some good calls.

      As far as China goes, I believe that to be true. When that bubble will burst is anyone's guess. I assume it will be within a 2 year period. Until then, there is money to be made. I also have limited my exposure to just 2 stocks- AKAM and INAP. In 2007-2008, I had over 30 diversified holdings. Those days are over. It is time to be protected and limit exposure. Well before any of this occurred, I had already sizable positions in gold coins but not as an investment or hedging instrument. When Warren Buffet published his 2003 letter to stockholders, I took tht position. His timing about the end may be off by 5 years, but his forecast as to what will happen is accurate. Rest assured. I only plan to hold INAP for another year or so at max which by then will have returned the results I target and then when all collapses, I will be able to scoop up everything on the cheap as the cycle begins again. AKAM is in a business acct which I have limited exposure to so I might keep that regardless of world conditions.

      I wish you the best- happy investing.

    • pantone101naturalblondie pantone101naturalblondie Jan 19, 2010 11:10 PM Flag

      >>Pantone- I dont have time to reply to everything you wrote; very busy day today. I will quickly summarize post. <<

      I can empathize. Yesterday afternoon I had to deal with a major interruption, then first thing this morning with another that morphed into a time-consuming errand. Slowly I'm getting caught up.

      >>I wrote you INAP was about to explode but Friday was a down day on risk aversion and buyers waited to move in. (INAP's inclusion of R2000 index exasperates the moves thus greater volatility than normal.) Price pressure is still very upwardly biased and I know of some buy interest on the floor (thus why I expected the move). Valuation continues to be key. Volume today is very high with large blocks moving through (50-65k blocks buys, digested smartly) and it is moving up nicely. You will see more upward bias in the coming weeks into the CC in Feb. Mark my posts. You were skeptical about my calls...<<

      Not so skeptical that I sold my INAP.

      But here's where I am skeptical. Skimming through your posts after I clicked on 'View Messages' under your alias, I came to this one dated the 15th:

      >>I won't go short for the simple fact theres too much activity on 'the other side' that keeps fear in me.

      Its all smoke and mirror like China's rigged economy and rigged statistics. Thats why the Great firewall was built- to keep the facts dead. I'm going to say a bubble so big has never burst before. We will be all paying with gold bars for a loaf of bread... and I am far from a doomsdayer.<<

      http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9454&tid=356139&mid=356161

      http://
      messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z
      %29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9454&tid
      =356139&mid=356161

      If you are seeing the end of the financial world, bread costing gold bars, why are you urging me to spend my money on stock while waiting for the burst bubble you're expecting? Or are you recommending only a short term investment in INAP? Why are you holding your INAP long? When, how soon, do you expect bread to cost gold bars? Can you harmonize your two math sets?

    • Pantone- I dont have time to reply to everything you wrote; very busy day today. I will quickly summarize post.

      I wrote you INAP was about to explode but Friday was a down day on risk aversion and buyers waited to move in. (INAP's inclusion of R2000 index exasperates the moves thus greater volatility than normal.) Price pressure is still very upwardly biased and I know of some buy interest on the floor (thus why I expected the move). Valuation continues to be key. Volume today is very high with large blocks moving through (50-65k blocks buys, digested smartly) and it is moving up nicely. You will see more upward bias in the coming weeks into the CC in Feb. Mark my posts. You were skeptical about my calls...

    • pantone101naturalblondie pantone101naturalblondie Jan 15, 2010 2:39 PM Flag

      >>I think you are becoming confused or I am not clearly distinguishing the two-- I said I sold some AKAM the name of profit not INAP. I did not sell INAP as I no longer trade INAP. I continue to hold a position in AKAM in a business acct which will be listed as long term.<<

      Chalk it up to short memory. When I read your comment — which did not name any stock — I thought you were talking about INAP as you have been.

      >>With all due respect, within the first 5 minutes, several large blocks went through as BUY orders- 55k to be exact and INAP rose .03. There was very good buying which made up thus far 40% of the daily volume. Obviously not the 'pop' I was expecting but that will come soon. As I stated on the INAP MB, INAP is due for a healthy correction but will rise soon after. I reiterate that forecast. <<

      Opening orders — for virtually all actively traded stocks — are often for the purpose of suckering retail investors. I didn't know about your expectation for INAP's healthy correction because you didn't mention it on this board.

      >>However, how can you argue this move down when the NASDAQ and DOW are down heavy today? As you said, INAP is down on light volume, whereas it rose on heavy traded days suggesting this is not selling based on INAP's fundamentals.<<

      This is how I argue INAP's drop today versus that of the indices:

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1d&s=INAP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=%5EDJI&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5ENYA

      http://
      finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1d&s=INAP
      &l=off&z=l&q=l&c=%5EDJI&c=
      %5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5ENYA

      >>Furthermore, I never said I expect the move to be today or even Monday, but I did say soon which means a week or so. Being that INAP is indexed with the Russell 2k, I know the swings to be a bit more violent than usual. Volatility is the norm. <<

      Okay, I'll watch next week.

      >>As far as the option front goes, INAP's options have shifted in favor of risk aversion as the overall market tanks. Even AKAM is down today, so my call to sell those trading shares was warranted and correct. I made a tidy profit and plan to reinvest in the downturn. <<

      While you were looking at the INAP vs the indices chart, did you also substitute AKAM's ticker for INAP's? AKAM is now above those four indices. Just barely, but above them all.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1d&s=AKAM&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=%5EDJI&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5ENYA

      http://
      finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1d&s=AKAM
      &l=off&z=l&q=l&c=%5EDJI&c=
      %5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5ENYA

      >>My upward bias for INAP is certainly warranted. The risk to the upside is far greater than the downside risk on valuation. I will post my 4th qtr estimates again. BTW- my last estimates for the 3rd qtr were better than any analyst.<<

      Until today, INAP's actions demonstrated your faith in the stock was warranted. I don't believe in basing a stock opinion on only one day's action. Also, stocks on the Monday following options expiration commonly reverse their Friday direction. So I'll wait and see. I just don't have the risk appetite to buy a diving stock in a worsening economy. But I will keep watching it. Maybe today is a buying opportunity, but I'm too chicken to peck at it.

    • >>"It's a very good thing you took some of your profit off the table, because INAP is dive, dive, diving this morning and has crossed way below its support at $4.933. Were those options a mirage or are you looking at February options? The final verdict doesn't get rendered until the last half hour, but the interim verdict doesn't look good. At the moment INAP is down 4%, more than the percentage AKAM gained yesterday.

      I think you are becoming confused or I am not clearly distinguishing the two-- I said I sold some AKAM the name of profit not INAP. I did not sell INAP as I no longer trade INAP. I continue to hold a position in AKAM in a business acct which will be listed as long term.

      >>"One thing particularly puzzles me: if everything was as rosy as you said, and if you believe INAP is "about to explode to the upside," why did you sell some? I do believe you were sincere in the things you told me, but, for one thing, I'm wondering about the Level II you were seeing. Big money does camouflage their buys and sells, breaking down huge moves into little bits. In favor of INAP, the diving volume does not appear to be as strong as its rising volume, and witching Friday's are notoriously volatile.

      With all due respect, within the first 5 minutes, several large blocks went through as BUY orders- 55k to be exact and INAP rose .03. There was very good buying which made up thus far 40% of the daily volume. Obviously not the 'pop' I was expecting but that will come soon. As I stated on the INAP MB, INAP is due for a healthy correction but will rise soon after. I reiterate that forecast.

      However, how can you argue this move down when the NASDAQ and DOW are down heavy today? As you said, INAP is down on light volume, whereas it rose on heavy traded days suggesting this is not selling based on INAP's fundamentals.

      Furthermore, I never said I expect the move to be today or even Monday, but I did say soon which means a week or so. Being that INAP is indexed with the Russell 2k, I know the swings to be a bit more violent than usual. Volatility is the norm.

      As far as the option front goes, INAP's options have shifted in favor of risk aversion as the overall market tanks. Even AKAM is down today, so my call to sell those trading shares was warranted and correct. I made a tidy profit and plan to reinvest in the downturn.

      My upward bias for INAP is certainly warranted. The risk to the upside is far greater than the downside risk on valuation. I will post my 4th qtr estimates again. BTW- my last estimates for the 3rd qtr were better than any analyst.

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