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  • dublucash2004 dublucash2004 Jan 11, 2011 10:59 PM Flag

    Last dividend

    I was doing some chart comparisons with UDN, CEW, EMB, and EMLC - over the last six months, one month, and one week - looking for any patterns. They all move in relative sync with each other - with some relative variation due to different schedules and amounts of divvies.

    The only potential trading pattern I noticed happened in the last week, where UDN (dollar bear) was down big on Friday, and ELD held up. Then on Monday, ELD too the hit. I'd have to do some more research and watching, but (depending on the type of account you have) it may be worth selling ELD on any day when it has strength while UDN is down quite a bit.

    I am pretty overweight on ELD right now, so I may lighten up if I see that pattern. Unless the market crumbles and gives me better buying opportunities elsewhere, I don't see anything I would rather own than ELD right now.

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    • Interesting,profitable? observation. I'm going to watch that. The $ seems doomed, but I'm not willing to put money on it by shorting directly. Alternatives seem relatively 'safer'. And often better interest.

      • 1 Reply to ppittman2
      • Agree - I wouldn't directly short the dollar (it may turn out to be a safe haven in case of dramatic world events). EMLC is fine for longer term. I did lighten last week on a UDN divergence, and added it back today. UDN is green (a weaker dollar) and ELD is red (inflation fears? emerging market troubles?). We'll see what happens - but I would expect (hope?) for ELD to turn green on Wednesday. We should also be within a week of going ex-div on the January distribution, so I don't mind being overweight ELD.

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