Hello, I just got back from vacation (been gone since 6/25) and am checking my ANLT. I saw the news about the new stock issue, and have seen that the stock has fallen quite a bit in response. I thought about it a bit and have concluded that this new stock issue may be accretive. Here's my thinking.
According to the news release, some of the proceeds of the stock issue will be used to pay down debt. Reducing debt decreases interest expense and thus directly contributes to the bottom line. Assuming an 8% interest rate and a 30% tax rate, $18 of debt reduction will produce about $1 of earnings. Thus, as long as ANLT trades at a P/E greater than 18 (based on future earnings) selling new shares to reduce debt will be accretive to EPS.
Of course, the quantity of shares to be issued is far more than that needed to pay off debt. These extra shares will dilute current earnings. However, the sale of these additional shares will increase the amount of cash available for acquisitions, assuming management doesn't spend it foolishly. Thus, there is an element of risk here and I'm sure this element is responsible for the recent drop in price.
Since management has done 5 accretive acquisitions in the past 3.5 years, I see no reason to disbelieve that further accretive acquisitions will be forthcoming and the cash proceeds from the stock issue will be put to work profitably.