Axion International Holdings, Inc. Message Board

Using GryCrayon's figure of $31.5 million in debt
payments, 8% interest, and 30% tax rate one can calculate a
bottom line impact of $1.76 million on net income.
Assuming roughly $6.1 million/year in net income at
present and a 30% internal growth rate, we should expect
net income of about $7.9 million from continuing
operations over the next 4 quarters. Adding these together
gives $9.66 million in net income over the next 4
quarters. After the sale of the new shares there should be
roughly 8 million shares, so EPS over the next 4 quarters
would be about $1.20. In the absence of the debt
payoff, we would have EPS of 7.9/6.25 =
$1.26.

This simplistic analysis suggests that the impact of
the stock issue on EPS assuming no further
acquisitions would be slightly negative (~5%).

This
negative impact amounts to about $375,000, or $535,000
before taxes. This earnings shortfall could be made up
by an investment of $10 million in T-bills. Provided
ANLT can raise at least $41.5 million by the stock
issue, use 31.5 million to pay down debt and invest the
rest in T-bills, the impact on EPS of the stock issue
would be nil.

Thus, assuming a 10% cost (I
should expect it's less than this), if ANLT can sell the
1.75 million shares at an average price of 26 or more,
there should be no EPS dilution at all. Of course, ANLT
will eventually put the extra assets to work at
something more profitable than T-bills (e.g.. more
acquisitions), but it is nice to know that even in the short
term the impact of these extra shares should be
neutral, or even slightly positive on EPS.

....lets hope they are good!

Stock should end the year somewhere between 35-40
and next year end between 45-50, if that's not high
enough or fast enough for some of you, then please
reconsider.
This is a 3-5 year hold and a very rewarding hold
based on past performance, there is no guarantee to any
of this, and the fluctuations over a 3-5 year period
would probably drive non-investors crazy, this has
proven to be the strongest co., in an emerging industry,
whether or not it continues to be so, is where the
investing comes in.

Is ANLT going out of business? I seriously doubt
it. Were they really going to report blow out
earnings for the quarter? I seriously doubt it. Do they
still have a very favorable outlook for the longer
term? I seriously believe they do. Is it possible that
the stock offering needs to priced more attractively
than the wild numbers that were being thrown around
here a short while ago? I seriously believe that too.
Are too many of you in this stock to try and
capitalize on every wiggle and squiggle based on hope, hype
and enthusiasm? It sure looks like that. Can I be
expected to apply that technique to my investment
philosophy and expect to enjoy real capital appreciation? No
way Jose.

It's about time that many of you
make a real effort to understand what this company and
its industry are really about and either aclimate
yourself to the fact that it makes very volatile price
swings based either on perceived or real changes in near
term fundemental performance. A company such as ANLT
which reports on a "percentage of completion"
accounting basis is subject to wide swings in quarter to
quarter reporting and trying to use past performance as a
basis for comparison can lead to severe frustration.


An educated guess on my part leads me to feel that
the sequential quarterly and year to year comparisons
will fall short of what some may have taken as a
shoo-in for dynamic sales and net income growth. This of
course tends to drive the momentum player of the track
very quickly. Time for the release of real news is at
hand and that's when I may make any change in my
current thinking about calling it a day in this stock.