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Axion International Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • Myth_Mangler Myth_Mangler Sep 21, 1999 12:20 PM Flag

    The return of sanity

    New Investors:

    Compare and contrast
    today's posts with yesterday's. The panic is already
    subsiding. That's normal. Take note and remember
    it.

    The price, after a day combining unusually high
    volume with an unusually steep fall-off in price, is on
    the rebound -- as opportunists take advantage of
    yesterday's overreactions. Take note and remember
    it.

    Is it time to buy? If you have a long-term horizon,
    it may be. But, for the next six months or so, the
    price is likely to trade within a range of 15-18. The
    overall market itself is floundering, so it's not an
    ideal time to buy anything if you are still prone to
    panic attacks. Also, it's not a sterling idea to invest
    in a company after disappointing earnings until time
    makes it clearer whether the disappointment is a glitch
    or an omen. I maintain that it's too early to tell.
    Either those who currently believe that it's a glitch or
    those who currently believe that it's an omen will tell
    me that they KNEW already; but, even though one of
    the two groups will be proven correct, I don't buy
    their current knowledge for a second. Their belief, one
    way or the other, is more a reflection of their
    optimism or pessimism than of known facts.

    My
    point: Yesterday was a great learning opportunity for
    ANLT's investors -- if they examine how they reacted to
    a darn unpleasant dip in ANLT's price. Those who
    sold paid the most, so they are entitled to learn the
    most. Never live in the moment in the stock market.
    Don't let bad news obliterate all that you know about a
    company.

    I find that the best way to keep my head is to
    write detailed notes on each stock that I buy to remind
    me of why I bought the stock. What attracted me to
    the stock? What sources and fundamaentals confirmed
    my attraction? Have those sources and fundamentals
    changed? Is whatever announcement that came forth a
    pothole or a collapse of the company? What did I think of
    management yesterday? Do I have any reason (other than my
    disappointment) to rewrite my opinion? Has the excellent track
    record that I insist upon for my stocks somehow
    disappeared? Has something changed that will stop the company
    from getting back on track?

    Unless I encounter
    dishonest or unethical practices or some paradigm shift, I
    tend to stick. On the other hand, I don't care how
    well the company is doing if I find it acting
    unethically because I don't believe one can win long-term
    with unethical partners. When I spot unethical or
    dishonest practices, I sell immediately regardless of the
    stock's price.

    ANLT's management has been
    aboveboard and competent. The company's track record is
    excellent. Management had credibility last month and still
    has it today. They had to earn my trust in the past.
    Now, they will have to earn my skepticism -- which
    they have not done.

    Observe how you act in
    regards to the market and pay attention to whether your
    actions are increasing or decreasing your profits. Then,
    drop the behaviors that are costing you money. That,
    novices, is how to grow as an investor. (Heaping abuse at
    management and hoping for a class action suit, on the other
    hand, is how to remain emotionally and financially
    impoverished.)

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I checked Zacks internet site for this weeks ANLT
      numbers.

      Last week for 9 analysts covering ANLT, 8 were strong
      buy and 1 moderate buy.

      This week 6 strong
      buy, 1 moderate buy and 2 hold.

      Cons. est. FY99
      increased .01 cents to $1.51
      Cons. est. FY00 decreased
      .01 cents to $1.89.

      FY00 8 analysts covering
      ANLT
      4 at $1.92
      1 at $1.93
      1 at $1.96
      1 at
      $1.97
      1 at $1.77?

      The $1.77 est. caused the cons.
      est. to drop to $1.89
      Most companies would love to
      have ANLT's numbers.
      As usual the rosy numbers
      don't help the stock price.

    • I was just thinking the same thing. Limbo=the dark side of BUYANLT.

    • you are one of them.
      WE ALL KNOW YOUR AGENDA!

    • I recently found ANLT through stock screening
      using parameters similar to those of the CANSLIM model,
      but also testing for large beta. In looking through
      the posts and starting to do my research and DD, the
      one thing that struck me was the insider selling
      shown on the filings, which does not inspire optimism.
      It will be interesting to see whether insiders are
      buying at current levels. If not, I regard that as a
      negative. Since this stock trades at a substantial price
      and volume, making it more an investment than a
      speculation, the price volatility is surprising.

    • I recently found ANLT through stock screening
      using parameters similar to those of the CANSLIM model,
      but also testing for large beta. In looking through
      the posts and starting to do my research and DD, the
      one thing that struck me was the heavy insider
      selling earlier this year, which does not inspire
      optimism. It will be interesting to see whether insiders
      are buying at current levels. If not, I regard that
      as a negative. Since this stock trades at a
      substantial price and volume, making it more an investment
      than a speculation, the price volatility is
      surprising.

    • YUP!

      In my discussions with Geoff High one
      of the recurrent themes has been that management
      doesn't feel like they can accurately predict what
      contracts will be signed when. That doesn't mean that they
      won't be signed this quarter, it means that they just
      don't know...and if it doesn't happen, it will affect
      revenues & profits. Given that they thought they'd close
      some contracts last quarter and were disappointed, I
      can understand why they would now say that they can't
      accurately predict contracts this quarter.

      I'm sure
      that there is a full court press going on in the sales
      area. On the other hand, customers are sure to be aware
      of the importance to ANLT of signing the contracts
      and are likely to use it as leverage to seek
      concessions. With yesterday's announcement, ANLT has just
      given itself an excuse to let a contract slide if the
      client tries to hold out to the end of the quarter for a
      better deal. This might be bad for short term revenues
      and profits, but down the road it should enhance
      margins.

      There also appear to be uncertainties because of
      consolidations in the utility industry. When that happens it
      affects your business just like the hurricane affected
      businesses in the east coast. It sets you back, but once
      it's over you continue on. It's not the end of the
      world and it doesn't cut your value in half.

      The
      Y2K issue keeps coming up too. By January we'll know
      the impact on our whole economy of the turn of the
      century. Then we'll get on with life. If you think we're
      going to go into a protracted slump after the turn of
      the century, then ANLT isn't a stock to be even
      considered.

      All things considered, it still makes sense to look
      at ANLT on a long-term fundamental basis. Consider
      whether its market value is close to a reasonable
      intrinsic value. Think about how likely or unlikely it is
      that other investors will use the same thought process
      (less unlikely these days) and decide whether it makes
      sense as an investment.

      I still believe in
      ANLT. One of the things I get from the press release is
      that they are planning to EXPAND and grow next year.
      This is far more important than a short-term slow down
      in orders. The value of the company just went up
      because management is doing something to create long-term
      value. I'm sure they are heavily focused on the
      short-term too, but everything I hear tells me that they are
      doing their best to be long-term oriented and let the
      stock take care of itself.

      ANLT is a better
      investment at today's prices than ever. The nay-sayers were
      absent for a while. In the last month they have appeared
      here. Ignore them and they will eventually get bored
      and go somewhere else.

      As for Turbo's
      challenge, I'm looking for $18 by the end of the week. This
      stock has a tendency of bouncing pretty strongly after
      a run-down. I think the $15-18 range for the next
      six months is unduly severe. I do think there will be
      some sideways movement until we see earnings on
      November 11, but by then we will also get a better
      understanding of the company's growth plans and what happened
      with contracts this quarter.

      RLW

    • sounds an awful lot like BUYANLT?

    • If it's cloudy, does the sun rise?
      Well, at
      ANLT it is very cloudy!

      If fact this weather
      pattern has been predicted to hold for at least 6
      months...

      There was definitely short covering today but some
      shorts were adding to positions. I guarantee it!

    • I'll tell you what a famous investor once said
      when a reporter asked what the stock market was going
      to do. He said: "It will go up and
      down."

      Limbo, that's what stocks do. They go up. They go down.
      The frustrating thing is that ANLT moves up and down
      without discernible reasons.

    • I agree with all you wrote. In an earlier post
      today I said that we really have to wait until we see
      the possible negative effect on earnings in the first
      two quarters of 2000. Management warned us. So we
      have no excuse for being surprised if indeed it does
      turn out that earnings do not meet expectations. I
      have a feeling this management is both honest and
      conservative. Over the past three days I have spent nearly an
      hour on the phone, first with Scott Benger and then
      yesterday with Randy Sage. As the guy who wrote a couple of
      Chrysler annual reports for Lee Iacocca, I believe I know
      bullshit when I see it. There was none in their talks with
      me. I think the best strategy is what you recommend:
      WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

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