So many opinions concerning the Binary event that is coming anyday now and for the next few weeks. Lets start with the facts:
1-No one knows what the 800 patient trial results are as of today, everyone who suggests they know or are sure it is going one way or the other is filing mere conjecture and no ones investment should be based on any conjecture by un named posters. 2-Aspen has replaced an older poor version of management with a newer better looking group by experience and results, while this does not mean victory it can be veiwed as a net positive. 3-The test works, it is just a question of how well or better said, how accurate it will be providing information to those that are close in their scoring for appedecitis. Those that are clear ER cases do not need CT Scans with APPY test, that was clear in the 600 person trial. 4-The FDA liked what they saw at the 600 patient look but the fda STATS folks saw the flaws in FU along with a few other stat probelms but make no mistake about it, they want this to work for many reasons so they sent them back to the board for a 800 patient trial that is now in the books and being decided. 5-The PPS and market cap of this company are really low, so low and enticing that even with a weaker result but a 501K filing, the PPS may not suffer over time for the non margined investor. 6-Risk reward here seems to favor the long side but not by much folks. A hedged long position here seems in order.
Conclusion, this binary event is worth a bet but I give it 60-65% chance of some type of success and the pps either remains at current levels or goes up. However, the main reason this looks attractive is becasue of the low float and market cap and potential for this market. If these numbers come out favorable, you will see a conservative 3-4 bagger with thepotential overtime to go much higher.
Not bad odds in Biotech land and worth a look on weakness.
Call the company and get real information, they will give you some and there is alot of FUD on this nmessage board, alot.
You accuse people of "filing mere conjecture" in the first part of your reckless pump but then go on to end it with gross conjecture "a potential 3 to 4 bagger with the potential to go much higher".
So let me conjecture just like you did. The NPV will not surpass 90 because there are hundreds more patients and it's likely there will be more patients like those from the "hospital that screwed it up" from the last trial. I gotta say I love that line. Blame it in the hospital. Blockheads. It's a standalone test. Fact is FDA isn't approving a product that works the same or worse than current standards of care. The test results will be bad enough to wipe out 50%-75% of current pps. I believe in Bovipure. Therefore I will buy after the collapse to $1.5. Thankyou and enjoy.
"Fact is FDA isn't approving a product that works the same or worse than current standards of care. The test results will be bad enough to wipe out 50%-75% of current pps. I believe in Bovipure. Therefore I will buy after the collapse to $1.5."
Correct, FDA isn't approving a product that is equivocal to the standard of care. The fact that you have: 1. never completed a Double blind, RPCT 2. do not know anything about the blood work currently collected to rule an inflamed appendix 3. never completed a course in statistical analysis suggest you know absolutely nothing.
I will try once because you seem to be just angry, the usual from a bioler room paid poster but here we go.
From a mere investing standpoint, If you are short here your upside is maybe $2-3. But if you are wrong and this goes against you, then I could easily see a market cap exceeding about $500Mil to start which would put the PPS at about $11. That would give you a net lose of about $7-8 and if you are really unlucky and the numbers are really good then the market cap could go much higher but the key here is eventaually this will sell for 5-6 times sales so you can extrapolate the numbers from here.
Either way your downside short is much more dangerous and probably does not justify the risk profile of a bet against this test. However to each their own and GL.
Now if you are a paid poster then you just earned $1 and have no short position, congradulations.