it doesn't seem to have dropped much more than it was already down. I agree with your assesment but the hedge funds are no jumping on the short side, so as cnbc (ted david, to be exact) kept blaing the higher prices on speculators the same is happening on the other side today. This is why I am cautious on the golds, the way they just ripped the oil they will rip gold the same.
hey no problem reb. Had I been smart, I would have listened to Mahendra, who said Friday to get out of oil and short it frfom Monday on. I wish the guy didn't speak such pidgin English, that always gives me the impression of a circus act. But I shouldn't let this cloud the very accurate timing!
Today may be a very interesting day doc. That the MSFT dividend is being played up to such a degree is amazing to me too. Guess it is the feel good factor that the media likes to focus on. What I will tell myself today is that we are under the influence of Mercury, which can be likened to anything manic/depressive, quick-silver changes... Maybe another manic day , maybe the blues will set in. I am trying to gather all the info I can on oil. There may not be much news before the next OPEC meet on the 10th. Will it hit 42.96? It might.
We all would like a correction but it isn't happening. We are in a bull run in gold. We need more new guys like you to stick around for a while and not run back to whatever Cramer tells us to buy. The problem is if you have a choice in a bull run to take a tech stock or a gold stock most will take the tech stock. If the market breaksout you can make money in gold but more in techs and if the market fails you can make more in golds than in losing money in techs. jmo
trav, you read me right. I am looking across saying I can buy anything, regardless of falling dollar and higher yields. That makes no economic sense but the monkey throwing the dart seems to be back in fashion. You have set the market up at a double top. Along with the double top Microsoft has given you enough money to bust that top without much problem. Other things for you to run the market oil is dropping , it doesn't matter that the price is still in the mid 40's, it is dropping in their mind. The eco data is weak this morning and as long as oil is down market will be up. The only reason the futures are down is Msft dividend.That is unbeleiveable but true.
I am fairly new here and learning but the posts at RGLD are very technical and knowledgeable. There is a lot of talk of a gold correction? and a dollar rally especially if employment numbers are good tomorrow. I am locked and loaded with options on RGLD and GFI but really trying to get a feel for direction into 2005. What is your gut feel right now?
doc, I can see all you are listing except for one fly in the ointment: the treasuries getting killed and yields rising to levels we have not seen in at least a few years? "In the old days", that was not good for the market, and I would say: here we may be looking at a classic year end rally. Every money manager out there wants to keep his job, get his bonus and at least be on target. If this lasts more than a few days, I'd be surprised. At least, that's how I see it. And it looks like tons of irrational exuberance to me....