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Royal Gold, Inc. Message Board

  • pipefitter9 pipefitter9 Dec 15, 2004 8:21 PM Flag

    When to buy gss?

    I am fully loaded with pm stocks, bullion, pm mutual funds, but no gss nor rgld currently.

    If gss looks like it's performing well during the next leg up, I will sell a laggard and put the funds into gss.

    The daily price chart shows a good sized gap down about a week into December. If there is an up gap in the same general price area, that would create an island reversal, one of the most bullish patterns around.

    Let's see what happens in the coming weeks. IMHO, pipe,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60]

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    • I think it was upgraded in the morning edfiggy.
      but it was held in a 3 cent range until 2pm.

      I like this reasoning on the pog "a weak U.S. dollar, inflationary concerns, buying by Asian central banks and the effect of gold exchange-traded fund buying" and this is foreward looking so they also think the US$ is overvalued.

      Never heard the gld etf was making such an impact - but I thought it. Maybe this is an admission that comex has lost control of gold prices.
      Never heard an ivy league brokerage break with IMF & the pack by admitting central banks are buying. Bundesbank was another flop too - remember how they needed to announce imminent sales every time gold aproached 390 for the first and 2nd times before breaking above it, only to scalp 8 tons. I bet the French will also cancel their sales, they would be jealous/envious if the Germans kept their gold while they sold. Italians never wanted to anyway so where is the supply?

      All the old maxims on what central banks hold in their vaults was changed today by all this. Now they need gold. UBS may have some influence on the other research houses because they are correct.

    • Stocks want to rally right now. Stocks are moving higher before we crash @ February-Spring 2005. We will probably see Dow @ 11,000 before we get a test sub 9,000 IMHO (for the Dow). Gold will resume rally soon enought. I thought gold was going to test $427-$430 before strating another leg higher. It seems @$430 was the low. The stimilus for stocks is almost gone, while the FED continues hike rates. No more tax breaks or easy money. It looks like 1999 all over again. The crash started in the spring of 2000, right?

    • DJ UBS Raises Gold Cos On Recent Stk Drop, $460/oz Forecast

      By Heather Draper


      DENVER (Dow Jones)--UBS upgraded several gold companies on Tuesday based on a recent drop in gold stocks and sentiment that gold commodity prices will strengthen in 2005.

      The recent pullback in gold commodity prices in the last three weeks has meant gold equities valuations have dropped 11% on average, UBS analyst Tony Lesiak wrote in a research note.

      The February gold futures contract traded at around $442 a troy ounce on Comex recently, down nearly 4% since its close on Dec. 3.

      UBS dubbed the drop in gold prices a short-term correction and forecast a strengthening gold price in 2005, with an average of $460 a troy ounce in the fourth quarter of next year.

      Lesiak cited several factors for a continuing strong gold price in 2005: a weak U.S. dollar, inflationary concerns, buying by Asian central banks and the effect of gold exchange-traded fund buying.

      UBS upgraded Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), Placer Dome Inc. (PDG), Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC), Minas Buenaventura (BVN) and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) to buy from neutral and raised Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO) to neutral from reduce.

      Lesiak doesn't own shares of any of the companies mentioned. UBS makes a market in some of the securities and has provided investment banking services to several of the companies.

    • I guess now we know why GSS rallied all day. GSS upgraded by UBS after the close (also ABX). Personally, I think GSS is the best value in the gold sector. I am long 10,000 shares at $3.61. Only gold position, but I plan to buy NEM, PDG and RGLD sooner rather than later just before year-end.

    • imo, bullish RGLD, bearish GSS. RGLD looks like it has recently escaped the 2003 downtrend - arithmetically - and is close to escaping it on semilog. GSS has been a real loser whether due to mgmt wasteful ways or West African unrest and it just can't seem to find any support. After its miserable August rally, GSS is groping lower and I look for it to find some bedrock support in the 2.62-2.80 area.

    • pipe,
      While I don't want to issue any sort of a buy signal, I have to believe that when the tide turns, it will turn fast... My experience with GSS is that when people start piling on, you have up-moves of 10-15% in a day easily...

      If you look to be long for the long-term, I would start an accumulation plan rather than timing it all in one purchase... Maybe buy 1/4 of your wished holdings now, then another 1/4 in a quarter or two...

      Anyway, I don't know what's up with this sector right now, but since i'm a bit skittish maybe that's bullish...(!)

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