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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • bwilkison@ymail.com bwilkison Jan 17, 2011 9:08 AM Flag

    OT - A Challenge to Tradestoxx

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/246862-how-much-upside- potential-does-atmel-still-have

    I am not here to post on AVNR, but if Tradestoxx accepts my simple challenge, this post may somehow benefit long AVNR investors.

    Above, I have posted a link to an article I wrote that was distributed internationally just this morning. The last one I wrote (about AVNR) has received about 16 thousand page views. That number is growing every day.

    That has to be at least 15 thousand more views than any post ever read on this board. As such, this MB would seem a much less effective platform from which to reach the masses with your message/ideas than Seeking Alpha.

    All you have to do is submit 3 quality posts/blogs and they will then begin to consider publishing your pieces and distributing them nationally/internationally. They also pay you. The last article would have made me about $160.00 for a 1/2 hours worth of work.

    Your writing skills are above average and you have a strong point of view (although I would suggest maintaining a consistent PPS projection) and you still seem to be writing "blog length" message board posts on a daily basis, anyway. To get an article published and distributed should take no time at all. You can also write under a "pen name" if you wish to remain anonymous.

    I would think the average retail investor would likely salivate over your AVNR price predictions and you may just develop a massive following. You can also use the platform to create AVNR/PBA/ETC awareness...

    My challenge is for everyone. There are many great writers here. I plan to release my last AVNR piece for a while next week (Avanir valuation and PPS projections :) Be on the lookout for it and feel free to leave a comment or give a thumbs up or recommend my recent article, as well.

    I will keep my word and respectfully refrain from posting here until the summer as previously stated. I did not intend to become a distraction from healthy discourse and apologize to the old timers & everyone one else here for any such distraction(s).

    Onlyfacts: Bears/Packers playing each other in the post season for the first time in 70 years! Who's going to the big game? I'll give you a hint: It rhymes with Bears ;)

    GLTAL

    Bert

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    • breakingnews1967zyx@rocketmail.com breakingnews1967zyx Jan 17, 2011 10:16 AM Flag

      This thread should be a petition.

      Anyone that would prefer that tradestox take his one song, two post show over Alpha and turn those long pumps into a blog over there P L E A S E sign onto this thread.

      Leave theses boards to the people that want to share information and ideas without conflict. JMHO

      Breaking News

      • 2 Replies to breakingnews1967zyx
      • Sure thing. And leave this board to the "this stocks upside is 15 dollars crowd".

        Were it not for me introducing into this forum the pps versus patient estimates and continually putting a human face on those suffering with PBA you would all be lost in space with your this stock is going to be bought out for 15 non stop hype.
        I have worked and continually reworked the numbers and introduced to this forum the real upside potential given the most up to date patient populations and level of those suffering the worst forms of this. And, in doing so..arrived at my VERY conservative yet REALISTIC 120.00 pps. For that i've been attacked and stalked repeatedly..even having a video made about me.

        And you characterize it as having been ME that started this? Quite the reverse..you can squarely lay the blame on those like Bert and his various band of aliases and people like "vacationcharlie" whose opinions are now morphing into mine from his ridiculous pps targets he originally had.

        Because of my posts we have a whole new level of discussion as to what fair value really is for this company. Time will tell in the end what it winds up being but I can guarantee you this. Many a poster here will now reconsider it when it comes time to otherwise have sold in the mid teens.

        And they'll be thanking their lucky stars I was around to help them do just that.

        GL to you.

      • Tradestoxx should not write anything for Seeking Alpha. His forward projections for AVNR's stock price are fanciful at best and based on sheer speculation. While I remain hopeful for significant share price appreciation with Avanir in the next eighteen months' time and beyond, I know better than trying to predict future share price movements in the crazy, debt ridden world in which we all live.

        For instance, what if Iran blocks the Straight of Hormuz and cuts off 50% of the free world's oil supply overnight? What do you think would happen to world equity markets then? They will plunge. This is why predicting large gains in share price over 2-3 years' time is, IMHO, sheer folly. No one has a crystal ball, and at best, one can make an educated guess based on careful research, interviewing company officials, listening to the conference calls, talking to suppliers, etc. Its called due diligence, and unfortunately, I just don't see much of that in Tradestoxx's posts. He's an o.k. guy, but I just don't give much creedence to anything he says. He knows better than to post on Seeking Alpha. Estimating a $120 sahre price with no booked sales yet for Nuedexta? That takes, as the Brits say, some real cheek, mate.

    • tjason21@rocketmail.com tjason21 Jan 17, 2011 1:11 PM Flag

      BW You not posting is actually a disservice to this board and you know it. IF everyone left when they felt they were a distraction there would be zero people in the forum. Leaving goes against what you have said the purpose of the forum is. I ask you tor econsider since you are going against your own opinions.

      • 2 Replies to tjason21
      • lol. yea. We miss immensely people running around the forum suggesting that someone can pick up a bottle of robitussin..hand a pharmacist a 50.00 ..and wind up with nuedexta.

        Get real. Bert needs to go back into exile until summer as he promised he would. We're not even 3 days into it and he's broke the promise 2 times already.

        LOL!

        GOODBYE BERT

        PS: And, as for your suggestion and "challenge" to me..maybe i will and maybe i won't do it.
        Probably not though because i'm not in this to "hype" this stock to the masses. I'm in this to analyze it and gather not so well publicized news and information here on this board. I then take that information and formulate my own price targets. In other words..I don't need no stinkin wall st. analysts to tell me what an investment is really worth.

        And, if anyone is along with me for that ride..then so be it. And, if anyone wants to pose a SERIOUS fact based challenge to my estimates..then that's fine too.
        I'm pretty flexible when it comes to changing my #'s IF...someone can show me why mine aren't correct.
        I don't have an ego..and so there is none to get in the way of doing that.
        But unless someone can do that..then I stick with mine. And I ignore the "noise" .

        There is NOTHING to really suggest that this is anywhere near just being a 15.00 stock in time. How can someone take the ALREADY published 600k patient population ALREADY being treated for this and ALREADY not happy and reduce that down to 50k people will take this drug? That is a JOKE. That is the real danger here..from those promoting that as being a proper valuation of this company and stock price. And furthermore..that 600k doesn't include EVERYTHING Else in terms of future uses..all the OTHER millions of PBA patients..and the rest of the WORLDS patients to consider as well.

        Hey..believe me. I KNOW that 120 is a LONG way from 4 but I'm calling it like i see it.
        And I am sticking with it unless one of YOU..has a SERIOUS challenge ..based on FACTS..to show me differently.

        Good luck coming up with one.

        Avnr...the 120.00 stock.

        Bye!
        :)

    • Something to consider for sure. And thank you for the compliment.

      I have to take minor exception with your comment about my maintaining a consistent PPS target. My target for basically forever was in the 30 range. You'll recall my numerous comparisons with what Avnr did in 1999 to 2000 as supporting that.
      And, I felt as many here do..that a buyout could happen and would probably be in the 15 to perhaps 20.00 ragne. That still could happen.

      What caused me to change my PPS and to essentially "go ballistic " with it and revise it a couple of times prior to settling in on 120.00 is the news and information as it was released.
      My PPS estimates are not some static number to live or die by.
      With this rapidly changing and evolving situation I'm trying to keep them as fluid as possible while keeping things realistic as well.

      Honestly? What do I really think? I think this could go much higher than even 120.00. A million patients out of the 5 to 8 with pba in this country alone taking this drug would double that 120.00 and take it to 240.00 instead.
      And a million patients would STILL be only just over 10% of the U.S. population ALONE for PBA patients.
      Not counting the rest of the world..nor DPN..Nor anything else.

      It is VERY hard to maintain a constant PPS in the face of this. What my number is trying to show is how far away I am from 15.00 as i possibly can be..without completely losing credibility in my target price.

      What some may not realize in my posts is how conservative I really am being. But how I could ALSO take that number down just as easily. If the 8 Million pba patient number were to turn into 1 million instead. If 600k unhappy patients were to turn into 100k instead.
      My target price would be back at 30.00 faster than you can say...Tradestoxx changed his price again.

      I let the numbers talk for me Bert. I just work with what they give us.

      I think the stock price will continue now to move up. Every move up is met with very little pullback. This really is 1999 all over for me again. Same exact pattern and scenario. Different drug.

      What is really going to drive this price though is for the company to show investors the results. The market is very much like that right now for all companies really. As I sit here the looming question is..how long does it take to reach these people and let them know about this drug?
      If there are truly 600k people getting treatment now..with little to no results..they are going to be patients on this drug. It's simply a matter of time for that to happen.
      This is the absolute strength in my price target. And all the milions of other patients.the icing on the cake. And it's a huge amount icing as well which is what makes the upside even from 100+ so interesting to contemplate.

      But for me to write about THAT is what would be hype. Because we don't know that.
      But Bert..that 600k people..it's money in the bank I think.

      And..what can I say except that 600k = 120.00 pps.

      I'm sticking with it unless something suggests I shouldn't.

      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • Tradestoxx,
        Your calculations need to consider some factors:
        1. Potential delay in drug launch
        2. Negative feedback from users after the launch.
        3. Drug formulation change after FDA advise based on patient and doctor feedback.
        4. Potential for pulling it off the shelves (remember VIOXX - I used to take it and aggravated my ulcer).

        Look at Somaxon .. it has been languishing in the high 2s and low 3s 10 months after drug approval. I hold 3K Somaxon and believe that it will break $4 sometime this year and go higher. But, I cannot tell when this will happen.

        While I am a strong believer in this drug's potential, I do not see a price beyond $10 - $15 for next one year. I will take it if it becomes $20.00. But, your optimism is too high.

        Also, it is too early to compare 1999-2000 to current situation. I do hope u r right and we (the longs) prorit from it.

    • Rhymes with bears?...hmmm, good thing your writing is financial and not poetic.

      Bert says the winner be Bears
      The guess only meets critical stares
      His ursine faux pas
      Will stick in his craw
      As the winner will definitely be...Packers


      There you go. A perfect limerick according to the Wilkerson rhyme scheme.

    • vacationcharlie@rocketmail.com vacationcharlie Jan 17, 2011 2:23 PM Flag

      Thank onlyfacts, you're right... but then again if 50% experience complete remission, I guess they would stop buying it (too)?

    • go bears and no reason to refrain from posting altogether, just stop the back and forth childish banter with D-BAG Sox

    • 50% total remission is a very encouraging result..this should be widely adopted for PBA.

    • BW's posts re: this issue are clearly there for you to go back on and review and have been exactly as I stated. I'm the one who engaged him on his comments and would know best what he said..wouldn't I?
      You on the other hand..apparently missed a great deal of his comments. And so, before you look any more foolish than you already do with your lack of knowledge i'd suggest again that you go do your homework regarding what he said. And again...what he CLEARLY said is that you can take two generic products..pay a compound pharmacist 50 to 100 dollars..and walla..you have nuedexta. AND..he said it was completely legal.
      And guess what? Bert was wrong again.

      You'd like me to message you?
      That sounds strangely and eerily familiar to Berts tactics regarding him trying to get people to email him to uncover their IP addresses. Is your defense of him and "oh bert! please come back" comments and your rewrite of what he actually said ...because you ARE him?

      lol!
      What a shameless way to try to get back on the board if it is.
      Because you PROMISED ..clearly..to LEAVE until summer.
      And we all now see how that's working out..don't we?
      GO AWAY BERT!!
      And take all your aliases with you while you're at it.

    • vacationcharlie@rocketmail.com vacationcharlie Jan 17, 2011 2:39 PM Flag

      Got it, thanks.
      Good news - for investors(!)

    • You know....something has just dawned on me. And it's how full circle we have come on this board in such a short amount of time.

      Bert has gone from stalking me..telling everyone what a pumper and hype artist I was..

      to now wanting me to have my own column and thousands of viewers.

      How sweet is that?

      LOL!!
      I've been completely ungracious Bert in recognizing how much you have changed.

      Let's be friends!!

    • View More Messages
 
AVNR
5.36+0.08(+1.52%)Jul 23 3:59 PMEDT

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