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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Feb 3, 2011 8:59 AM Flag

    My prediction

    I believe that this quarter is the last quarter you will EVER see Avanir post a loss.

    While I have stayed away from short term predictions I feel VERY comfortable that NEXT quarter..we will see the following..

    PROFIT... .11 cents for the quarter

    # of patients on LEAST 25k

    Price per share of avnr stock..9 to 10.00 per share

    p/e ratio = 20

    I believe the market will afford avnr the higher p/e due to

    a)their growth rate
    b)Overseas expansion/partnership
    c)future product pipeline (dnp)

    What I hope people realize is that the above #'s are based only on 25k patients. Avnr estimates that there are some 5 million in the U.S. alone with PBA. Other sources suggest a higher number than that.

    What I have found remarkable..and frankly..almost unbelievable that the stock has traded still in this price range. And I say almost because I just don't think that investors quite get it yet. They haven't peeled back even the first layer of what is the potential market here. It's a market that is hidden from view for many. It's specialized medicine and an illness affecting many who are homebound or who people think are "supposed" to act the way that Patients with PBA do.
    Well, here's the news for you. They aren't SUPPOSED to act like that.
    They have a secondary illness..and it's called PBA.

    And it is now treatable.

    With ONE drug. One FDA approved drug.

    Ladies and Gentlemen..every single release that Avnr puts out talks about how many people there are out there. And the wide net that is now going to be cast to capture that market share.

    IMHO..we are EASILY going to hit the targets I have layed out above for next quarter. and I have witnessed the LAST of Avnr's losses. And, I predict soon..the last of the stock being anywhere near the current levels.

    Next quarter we'll be looking at 2 times and more these prices.

    Best of luck to all.

    And to Avnr..God speed in your journey.

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    • And so it starts

      Formermm...not sure I'll find my summary one but thought you would get a chuckle from this one

    • LMFAO , this is too funny! Tradeclown has always been so far off on all his silly predictions. It would help him if he had more than a six grade education. Keep up the entertainment Traderclown I do enjoy it.

    • Thanks, Mytek this is a classic Trade post. So utterly, utterly wrong.
      He so lamely tries to blame the lack of a decent share price on "shorting" but lack of sales can not be blamed on the shorts.
      And the share price is related to the lack of sales, not the shorts.
      Thanks for finding Trade's prediction of profitability by May, 2011
      He was only off by two and a half YEARS!
      But what did he care about accuracy?
      Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee lol
      Merry Everything and Happy Always to you, Bert and everyone!

      • 1 Reply to rayonman1
      • what's even funnier is that at the same time mytek...who is bert btw for anyone who doesn't know...was writing about the 2.62 Milllion burdened patients he expected us to have in his now infamous 2 part Seeking alpha article co~authored with onlyfarts.

        apparently he was off by 2.6199999 million?

        In any event Ray....i realize i've struck a nerve with my breakeven call which is now just around the corner and my call for Avnr to drop any idea of an EU partnership at this time.
        I guess another 70M run rate on top of the 70M we already have scares you?

        it should Ray.

        It really should.


        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Always like your optimism and really like your numbers. Based on my experience in biotech sales management, the studies Avanir wants to do to get new indications will more than likely diminish or erase its profitability. If the studies are large scale and entail comparisons to other treatments, they will be expensive.

      Also consider that if Keith and the Board envision building Avanir into a fully integrated bio/pharma company, they will be hiring more people for the next three years and will move into larger facilities to accommodate the growth.

      To date they have worked on a shoestring, but that will no longer be the case. They will now require drug regulatory affairs managers, people to manage the sales data and incentive systems, etc.

      Despite all this, the pps will rise, no doubt.
      Long and holding with both hands, as Falconi says!!

      • 2 Replies to rzrbackrob
      • my numbers are before any costs associated with any large scale studies associated with other uses.

        But, i'm sticking with my numbers other than that because I think they're selling quite a bit of the drug even as we speak and remember, they'll also have tax loss carryforwards as well to apply to earnings for a while.

        I also think my 25k number is very conservative and personally I suspect it could be closer to 50k.

        I think there has been pent up demand mainly from those being treated now but getting no results and I feel at least 5 to maybe 10% of them will shift over to this in the current quarter. least the last month of it being next month.

        In any event ..i feel 25k for this quarter is being pretty conservative yet realistic.

        We'll see.

      • Razorbackrob – your realistic views are always welcome. 30 years of experience in the industry is well worth listening to.

        Look forward to hearing from you next time, as we are both holding on with two hands ;)

    • On the CafePharma boards

      one rep enthusiastically says:

      Let's get 100,000 patients by June 1st!!!

    • I agree those 25,000 patients cover any extra expenses that will be spent during January through March.
      Simple Numbers Tell Me
      25,000 X $800 = $20,000,000
      They had expenses of $13.9 million for last quarter so if they can limit their spending to around $6 million more than that during January through March. Then they will break even if they can get their 25,000 patients.

      If they can break even when they report earnings in May I see earnings of at least 0.25 per share when they report Q3 Earnings in August.

    • Takes a lot longer than a single quarter to ramp up sales, meantime they now have a large sales force to pay. They will post a loss next q, question is how many scripts will have been written. That will determine where PPS goes.

    • Bet you we have at least 2 more quarters of loss after this one.

      no actual wager