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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Feb 16, 2011 9:26 AM Flag

    My price targets

    And time frames and # of patients I anticipate associated with them.

    Q2...I have no real opinion either way given the timing of the rollout, need to visit so many doctors, patients scheduling appts ect. In addition it's impossible to determine what might have been built up in the pipeline over the years in terms of patients who might be anticipating and waiting for approval. Given this i'm simply going to use 2M for revenues and 3000 patients and be surprised from there if it happens. Price target..where it is now to perhaps creeping upward.

    Q3 and Q4...By the end of the sept quarter i expect there to be 15k patients and revenues of 28M. Well before analysts are predicting..I anticipate Avnr will be break even in terms of their operations. Price target 6.00 by sept.

    Q1 2012...By years end I anticipate a price range of 8 to 12.00 per share. And 45k + patients

    Q2...I am expecting 60k to 100k patients and following Q 2 reporting period a price range at or approaching 30.00 per share.

    Q3...price at or approaching 40.00 per share..# patients at or approaching 125k.

    Beyond that..I'd really want to wait and see what develops but I feel confident that if we can see the earlier success demonstrated by the numbers above then it will be onward and upwards through the 60..80..100..and up to even the 120.00 level covering a period of 2 to perhaps 3 years out.

    Management states they expect there is 5 Million people in the U.S. alone with PBA. Other reports suggest the number could be higher.
    And..despite my having been accused of fabricating and dreaming up those higher numbers one only need look at the research that's out there giving ranges of 15 to even 39% of Alz patients alone with PBA. Avnr didn't use the top line estimate there when coming up with their number. Nor do I believe they used even the mid to higher percentages of the primary illnesses. If anything...it would have been the midpoint and particularly given shareholder liability issues..there was no need for them to pump up the numbers with their 5M estimate. And so, there very well could be 7 or 8 Million. Who knows? But the percentages do support that perhaps being the case without anyone fabricating anything.
    In any event..the higher #'s of my price target represent less than 10% of any of those estimates. 120.00 per share represents about 400k only. Could we hit it in 3 years? Why not? Anything is possible. And particularly when one considers outside this country and pain indications starting to be priced into the equation which very well could happen towards the latter part of this range.

    And so..there it is. My range of #'s and time frames. I think people should be particularly mindful to not expect too much so early on. There's lots to do and much out of Avnrs control until they settle into the routine and see the numbers start to flowing in. With that said though personally I am looking particularly towards that Sept quarter. Because to me..the 15k level is important by then. I think these early issues will have been ironed out by then and we'll start to have a real idea of how this is..or isn't going.

    What I do with my analysis is to work with the numbers that are there in front of me. I dont make up the numbers..I work with them.
    They are always subject to change..as is my targets. I feel that i'm being fair and conservative..allowing time for things to develop..but not so much as to become stagnant in this investment. With that all said..I feel very good about the above. My research has taken me to many sites and papers and level of research and so much has been referenced and cross referenced that I think all this is going to become reality.

    And if not..i'll be left to only wonder why it didn't happen.

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    • Reading through Traderclowns predictions makes me need N, I can not stop laughing!

    • Dude,

      Why wasting your energy day in and day out writing insane posts about AVNR price?

      This is at the most 2 dollar stock - be thankful that you still have an opportunity to get out of this mess and save your retirement.

    • If it ever gets as high as $40 = $5B market cap. Before then it would be taken out via acquisition. So, I don't think there is any way this stock will exceed $40 as a separately traded company - it will be absorbed by big pharma. I'm still VERY happy with $20+ and my 123,000 shares.

      • 1 Reply to hwk455
      • Folks..i just want to say..do NOT underestimate what this stock can do.

        At 5 grand per patient..if they managed to quickly land even 100k patients..this stock is going to be 30.00 before you can blink your eyes.

        I was in it before when it did that. 1999 to 2000..look at the chart. It was just a shuttle launch..everyday..week..and month...up..up..and up.

        Avnr is telling us that there is a market of five million people in the U.S.
        100k isn't alot out of that.

        And at 15k per 4.00..one only need do some simple math where that would take us.

        I'm giving that 100k about a year to be realized because i want to be fair but who knows what's out there really?
        I look at the google link with 44k hits and wonder what kind of demand that represents from years of anticipating this?

        I just don't know the early on numbers. But i want to be conservative at least the first two quarters if for no other reason but timing issues. Time to let the reps get to the doc's offices ...even 2 or 3 times. time to let patients get to appts..and get scripps filled. Time to iron out insurance issues.

        Those things avnr can't really help. And so we need to have some patience here.
        But by sept..i think at least 15k patients is all but certain. Along with a 6.00 price target...and break even results.

        Folks then need to consider though that numbers will compound off of those. They'll probably lose 10 to 15% due to whatever..but otherwise all new patients will just be added to the last batch. And that's why i'm seeing 30.00 or so a year or so from now.

        Don't underestimate this happening quickly..and even before any buyout is realized. Maybe we'll be at 30.00 then a buyout will happen..taking it to 40 or 50.
        Who knows?

        And lastly..again.I really don't want a buyout now.
        We'd be short changed compared to so much potential here.
        Folks..10 or 15 a share would be equal to 30 to 45k patients. And if there really are 5 million don't you see what we'd be leaving on the table for someone else?
        It would be crazy to let that happen.

        IMHO..stay independent as long as possible. A year or two at least..then see what develops.
        And personally..I think this is keiths view as well. I think that because of his EU comments and his saying there is value in just going it alone with this asset.
        I couldn't agree more. Unless a buyout figure REALLY represented what is going on here..then my vote would be no to it.

        Right now..and I mean..right now..if the offer was 30 to 40.00.then ok.

        But anything less I'm just not seeing it.

        Not when 100.00 or more is possible in 2 to 3 years.

    • And btw..feel free to post your own numbers as well. And particularly if you're going to critique or 1 star mine.

      Let's see you put your neck out on the same line I have mine in doing so.

      I will also remind everyone that despite my very optomistic predictions..Diversification is always rule # 1 with me. I cringe when i see posts saying I'm "all in" this..or any stock for that matter. What is always there to get us in the stock market is that which we can't see. And the way you live until another day is to make sure you're diversified. There are many good stocks out there to be in and creating a well balanced portfolio across sectors in the U.S. and around the globe is the way to invest IMHO.

      Avnr is my #1 holding..I'm very positive on it..but I will never let that cloud my judgement about diversification.

      And that's the way it is with me.

    • That works for me. I'm hoping $7 by late August first week of September so I can make some money on my $5 September calls.

 
AVNR
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