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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 May 5, 2012 1:15 PM Flag

    I'm feeling a Buyout....

    Very soon.

    1)maybe over 2000/wk TRX come monday

    2)millions of dollars in annualized revenues

    3)breakeven likely Dec ~ feb

    4)drug works extremely well with many positive comments

    5)pipeline in a pill

    6)pending EU approval and rollout

    7)FDA approved drug company a process that takes a decade

    8)Buyouts happening in the drug sector

    9)Big pharma patent expirations

    10)D-Dex will insure patent protection until the 2030~35 level

    11)Ongoing discussions now for a partner for EU likely to expand into buyout discussions. And, in fact..KK already said discussions were leading to they want the U.S. as well


    #12.... $2.78 per share.

    for all the above. Over 40 cents LESS than this stock was trading even before approval. You know folks..if you had said this to me in Oct. 2010 that all this would be occuring but yet the price would be where it is..I would have had you committed. But we are. Through whatever market events have caused it. Surely the massive shorting the last year has contributed. And surely the overall market itself and EU worries particularly have contributed. And..even longs have probably contributed with the trading mentality of a lot of people these days. Advances get beat back do it all over again.

    This sick. This price bears NO resemblance to all that has and is happening here. What has happened is what i have essentially predicted for a year + now. I could never have predicted this price though. I have covered my posterior however by always can't time the market. And that the case here.

    But's the thing. This can not be going unnoticed.
    40% quarterly growth...back to back to back..inflation now.
    Months from breakeven. And the company themselves are putting it out there in the form of analyst meetings and conferences and even in looking for a partner.

    Even if they HAD a drug that worked...big pharma would have to take a DECADE to get it to market. And here this one is...sitting at 2.78/share for the entire company.

    I don't know how we stay independent. If i was Glaxo i'd be on the phone monday saying..10/share?
    And if management won't say yes..issue a press release and take it hostile to the shareholders themselves.

    And they'll settle for 12/share.
    that puts this market cap in line with other acquisitions going on.

    Why i feel it will be soon is because if the price advances itself....the buyout price WON'T be 10 to 12. It will be 18 to 20. not on an acquirers side here.

    Once upon a time I thought that maybe we could stay under the radar long enough to have the scripts increase and price advance...and stay ahead of the buyout game.

    But not at 2.78 with all this going on.

    This is priced..right now..the same as a FDA REJECTED diet drug that causes tumors in Rats and shaves 9 lbs off a 300lb person.

    Manipulation? Maybe. Who knows why we're here at this point.
    I sure don't.

    I do know this though. If this stock price doesn't get going real soon...this yahoo board will be closed by the time December rolls around.

    And the Nuedexta bottle will have someone elses name on it.

    And i'm probably the only person on planet earth who will be unhappy about that and 12/share in my account.


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    • bwilkison Sep 18, 2012 7:06 AM Flag


    • I have no idea whether or not there will be a buyout in the near future, but I am thinking not. If there is a buyout any time soon it will probably be for about $7 a share. Of course if there was a buyout farther into the future they could possibly get $10 to $12 a share. For now I think that Avanir will be lucky to get a lucrative deal with a European partner. Let's keep things real here.

      • 1 Reply to intpmom17
      • 7.00 share is a joke. You obviously have no idea how to properly value a company.

        As for the bashing crew above...apparently they're getting concerned about the possibility of one as well.

        What a nightmare that would be for shorts. Waking up to a 10~12 price just like hgsi shorts did.

        Except this time..we actually have a FDA approved product to support the price...and one growing at 40% per QUARTER.

        Laughably enough..even Ray now has to support my position about there being no need for dilution.
        He even had to move up his break even date..although we both know he didn't move it up far enough.

        The fact of the matter is..with the multiple weeks of inflation we're seeing break even could be by december of this year.

        God help the shorts because the risk is now so real of waking up any day to an offer 3 times at least the current price. And probably 4 times if they hope it to be a serious offer.

        What a devasting day that will be for 24 million shorts.


    • How insane is the current price?

      Feb. 2006..WAITING for approval and instead getting a CRL.

      Price..17.00 + split adjusted...;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

      Today..a 40% growth FDA approved 2000/wk scripts pipeline in a pill commands a price of..

      2.78 instead.

      I'm not seeing staying independent for very long in our future.

      Not at this price..

      This is like a black friday sale price on a FDA approved drug company.


      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • You idiot. The reason the price is where it's at is because of dilution.

        Even you are smart enough to realize the difference between having 30 million outstanding shares in 2006 compared to having 137 million outstanding shares in 2012.

        Let me help you out donkey!
        $450,000,000 divided by 30 million shares = $15 per share
        $450,000,000 divided by 140 million shares = $3.21 per share

        Let's say for some reason a company is willing to fork over $1 billion for this company. In 2006 that would have been a beautiful thing.
        $33.33 per share buyout
        2012 not so hot but still a move up from where we sit today.
        $7.14 per share

        The thing is they probably could have had $6 per share in November 2010 but the CEO squandered that opportunity away and in the meantime has shown that the drug doesn't sell and the potential that was shown in the surveys was all a crock of bs.

        Why would big pharma possibly fork over $1 billion for a company with one approved drug that is a combination of generics in the midst of patent litigation?