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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 May 7, 2012 1:14 PM Flag

    Tradestoxx REITERATES...

    BreakEven..

    Dec 2012~ Feb. 2013.

    And..i'm allowing the latter simply because I want to make sure there's no "little bit left over" that the naysayers will pounce all over.

    And..because Ray ..the worst naysaying short this board has seen ...has finally conceded there will be no dilution.

    Ladies and Gentlemen..as i keep TRYING to help people like OFP understand...this company CAN BREAK even
    at the 4000/trx level.
    They can break even LESS than that as well.

    It just..depends on some factors that as of right now..we can only assume are going to take place. BUT..i think they ARE going to take place and are REASONABLE to assume are going to take place. And so..i'm willing to make this call.

    Folks..EU revenues are NOT GOING TO SHOW UP in the TRX count we hear about.

    They are most likely goingto show up like abreva revenues each quarter.
    And so..we can be at 4000/wk TRX...and have it BE LIKE we're at 4400/TRX simply because of that factors.
    Because the EU revenues are going to directly impact the top and bottom line...and will impact our break even date.

    Another factor that will likely impact this will be a likely price increase in December of 5 to maybe 7%.

    And ANOTHER factor that will impact it will be even a modest rise in pill counts.

    And so..for the naysayers to sit here and say..4000/wk does NOT equal break even..is simply wrong.
    Because 4000/wk is referring to a TIME...not simply a TRX number that is required to reach that level.

    In OTHER Words...
    Pill counts might RAISE that 4000/wk to the EQUIVALENT of 4200/wk.
    a price increase might RAISE that 4200/wk to 4500/wk.
    And EU revenues for what might be a full quarter..Ie: the oct to Dec. period will bring about the rest based on my model.

    Are you understanding NOW why OFP is just SO wrong?
    Are you comprehending NOW why Shorts are in such a DIRE predicament..and even WORSE than they imagined?

    4000/wk..CAN....EQUAL..Break even.
    AND..if EU revenues are STRONGER..pill counts are HIGHER..
    it can even be LOWER than that number.

    thank you for allowing me to yet again correct OFP.

    He is so full of misinformation...

    ~TS
    jmho

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    • Great post..thanks for the bump. So...WAY back in May....I had a b/e call for Feb. And so we'll miss it by a month or two.

      Shoot me for being so horribly wrong !!

      :LOL!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • $30MM loan pushes break even back another several months.

      Look for TS's REITERATION of summer 2013 break even shortly.

      He is too busy eating humble pie right now.

    • Priceless is right.
      My first prediction for breakeven 2012 was made when we were at about 200/wk TRX.

      I'd call that about as priceless as you can get.

      And while the jokers Rim and OFP would like to make some issue about whether it was june..sept or Dec..the fact is to have it fall into that range at all is quite visionary I think.

      As slide 20 was presented more towards the end of the year..I modified it further..again..within just that short few month time span.

      And today...May 2012..I'm still at the December level albeit with a 45 day "cushion" to address the continuing variables.

      I clearly demonstrated today how laughable OFP and others 4800~5000/wk Break even numbers are that they had extending into 2014 initially and had to spoon feed them the reasons why it was laughable in that they weren't including a price increase nor even an EU rollout in the last quarter nor even a very modest increase in pill counts all of which can easily come together to make 4000/wk break even..instead.

      Along with my break even date.

      As OFP's chart also shows..all his "lines" were wrong..until he drew mine. At which point he then became much more right.

      And again..one has to put this against the backdrop of when i started making these predictions.and how early it was. 200/wk TRX..to call breakeven in 2012 and have it be off at most..by 2 mos..if it IS that even as i haven't conceded even December..would be extremely visionary.

      Thank you.

      ~TS

    • Are you just banking on people not getting to the link because you posted a non-functioning one?

      If they read all the garbage in that post they will hear you mention March 2013, say you don't think that will be it, and CONCLUDE:

      "I don't think that will be the case though..hence why i'm forecasting break even by Aug 2012 at the latest."

      "at the latest."
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    • ofp and his laughable 4800/trx prediction that was revised down from his even more laughable 5200/trx prediction.

      by new years eve he'll morph into my 4000/trx level though.

      Just watch him!!

      http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?bn=27718&tid=345555&mid=345676

    • The bashers are trying to 1 star my post.
      Apparently they never factored in all the above when calculating a BREAK EVEN date.

      LOL!

      And now ..sadly..they're understanding why Ray and OFP Break even targets for year end next year are so freaking laughable.

      Folks..do you understand what DANGER shorts are in?

      How will they EVER get this many shares covered ? and not only by year end..but the writing is already on the wall as to how and when we'll be reaching breakeven.

      My post just shaved a YEAR off their rotten little lives!!

      ~TS
      jmho

    • By the way...
      When you change your breakeven prediction it is called a REVISION...

      NOT a Reiteration.

      What is this your fourth REVISION of your breakeven target date for AVNR?

      Carny Barking Pumping Insane Clown Tard.

    • btw..just so i'm clear on my timeline..this is what my model has us seeing..

      3500~4000/wk Trx by year end...
      EU beginning to contribute in the Oct ~Dec. period 2012
      5~7% price increase in December..
      pill counts ..moving towards the 55 level...

      I think that the EU is going to start out stronger than we did here because of
      a)it will likely be marketed by a much larger sales force
      b)advance knowledge of this drug from our rollout

      Pill counts..i think they move up as the year progresses as retail becomes more of a factor and patients move to 180 day scripts.

      Price increase..at least 5% i think..

      obviously there's variables here but i think on the track we're on and with these items we'll be breakeven by this period.

      Sooner could happen with
      a)inflation growing even stronger
      b)higher pill counts than 55
      c)earlier EU rollout or stronger than expected.

      Bottom line is this.
      As long as we're on track here in the U.S. for 3500~4000/trx AND the EU gets approved AND is up and running in the last calender quarter AND we see a price increase in December AND pill counts creep up...

      I think my forecast is sound.

      Or..close enough anyway..and CERTAINLY closer than these ridiculous 5000/wk estimates OFP and CO. are spouting off about all the time.
      They simply are not factoring any of these other variables into their estimates.

      ~TS
      jmho

 
AVNR
16.960.00(0.00%)Jan 12 4:00 PMEST

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