by jonasmoses11111.Jun 22, 2012 10:11 PM.Permalink
A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today. "
Didn't quite work out like you said, did it? Given that the gross run rate today, (about 30 weeks later) is $85 million which is closer to the $60 million you alleged at the time than the $120 million you said it could be today. Avanir didn't even get halfway to where you said it could go.
"A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.
IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. ----
BIIB has a 28 PE. - -----. Multiply 28 x $180 Million. " Your extrapolations are way over the top. Even the sell-side analysts are predicting only $79.1 million in gross revenues for FY ending 9/30/2013. Then you tell us to multiply your wildly inflated Avanir's gross revenues by the PE ratio of another company! But I think 4-5 times net revenues would be more than fair for a buyout price.
BioTech's which do not have FDA APPROVAL are valued at 3 x Peak Revenue Multiples. AVNR has FDA Approval and will likely be close to BE by calendar YE with an EARNINGS GROWTH RATE which is off the CHART thereafter.
I can assure you, any offer less than $2Billion (i.e., $15 per share) is a complete non-starter for TROWE, INGALLS, FMR, Blackrock etc.).
Actually, I underestimated the ramp at 2.5% WOW. If the ramp, continues at that pace:
$60 MM gross run rate today.
$120 MILLION in 30 weeks; AND
$240 MILLION in 60 weeks, a little over a year from now. Now wouldn't that be something with a 2.5% WOW growth rate. Still only 4% of US only PBA market BASED ON SUMMERSTREET. They said $600MM is only 10% in US ONLY.
Who in their right mind would be short? AND I am not TRADE. ON this issue, he is 100 PERCENT right. The party is OVER! Fat Lady sings. . . .