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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • rayonman1 rayonman1 Jun 23, 2012 1:03 AM Flag

    You Know

    "A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.

    IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. ----

    BIIB has a 28 PE. -
    -----. Multiply 28 x $180 Million.
    Your extrapolations are way over the top.
    Even the sell-side analysts are predicting only $79.1 million in gross revenues for FY ending 9/30/2013.
    Then you tell us to multiply your wildly inflated Avanir's gross revenues by the PE ratio of another company!
    But I think 4-5 times net revenues would be more than fair for a buyout price.

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    • Wrong.

      BioTech's which do not have FDA APPROVAL are valued at 3 x Peak Revenue Multiples. AVNR has FDA Approval and will likely be close to BE by calendar YE with an EARNINGS GROWTH RATE which is off the CHART thereafter.

      I can assure you, any offer less than $2Billion (i.e., $15 per share) is a complete non-starter for TROWE, INGALLS, FMR, Blackrock etc.).

      How did HGSI work out? Same Players. Same game.

      • 1 Reply to jonasmoses11111
      • I see HGSI has a market cap of $2.66 billion and 2013 revenues are projected to be $386 million.
        HGSI's market cap is therefore 6.89 times next years gross revenues.

        Multiplying Avanir's FY end 9/30/2013 revenues projected by overly rosy sell-side analysts of $79.07 times 6.89, I get a market cap of $545 million.

        Yet somehow you look at the same numbers and say that Avanir's price in a buyout has to be at least $2 billion which is almost four times the amount I get using your HGSI example.