Avanir Pharmaceuticals Message Board
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You Know
A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.
IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. PBA ONLY in U.S.
WITHOUT:
EUROPE revenues; and without considering
ALS agitation
MS pain
Neuropathic pain
Abreva
DDex opportunities
BIIB has a 28 PE. Needs Earnings Growth to maintain it.
Shorts are done. Multiply 28 x $180 Million. Studies and other duplicative expenses are at their sole discretion.-
You know they have $15 to $17 million in quarterly losses and will be lucky to do $10 million in quarterly net revenues? You know don't you?
- 1 Reply to soxxboundwekill
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Watch and learn. Nice analysis.
Do you think AVNR will beat ALL Analysts' average REVENUE and NET EARNINGS estimates for this quarter?
Do you think that THIS QUARTER they will ALSO BEAT all ANALYSTS average NET EARNINGS estimates for NEXT QUARTER TOO?
IMHO, not even close.
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"A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.
IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. ----
BIIB has a 28 PE. -
-----. Multiply 28 x $180 Million.
"
Your extrapolations are way over the top.
Even the sell-side analysts are predicting only $79.1 million in gross revenues for FY ending 9/30/2013.
Then you tell us to multiply your wildly inflated Avanir's gross revenues by the PE ratio of another company!
But I think 4-5 times net revenues would be more than fair for a buyout price.- 1 Reply to rayonman1
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Wrong.
BioTech's which do not have FDA APPROVAL are valued at 3 x Peak Revenue Multiples. AVNR has FDA Approval and will likely be close to BE by calendar YE with an EARNINGS GROWTH RATE which is off the CHART thereafter.
I can assure you, any offer less than $2Billion (i.e., $15 per share) is a complete non-starter for TROWE, INGALLS, FMR, Blackrock etc.).
How did HGSI work out? Same Players. Same game.
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2.5% w/w for 30 wks is a fantasy. Your indications do not come without great cost.
I am looking for above average volume wk/wk, like today, through $4 and then I might think something is going on that has nothing to do with your points.
You are really off track and simply speculating, just like PINOCCHIO TS/BS who you mention.
Still sensible down here in retail investor land bud.
SS -
Actually, I underestimated the ramp at 2.5% WOW. If the ramp, continues at that pace:
$60 MM gross run rate today.
$120 MILLION in 30 weeks; AND
$240 MILLION in 60 weeks, a little over a year from now. Now wouldn't that be something with a 2.5% WOW growth rate. Still only 4% of US only PBA market BASED ON SUMMERSTREET. They said $600MM is only 10% in US ONLY.
Who in their right mind would be short? AND I am not TRADE. ON this issue, he is 100 PERCENT right. The party is OVER! Fat Lady sings. . . . -
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by jonasmoses11111.Jun 22, 2012 10:11 PM.Permalink
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A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today. "
Didn't quite work out like you said, did it? Given that the gross run rate today, (about 30 weeks later) is $85 million which is closer to the $60 million you alleged at the time than the $120 million you said it could be today. Avanir didn't even get halfway to where you said it could go.
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