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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jonasmoses11111 jonasmoses11111 Jun 22, 2012 10:11 PM Flag

    You Know

    A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.

    IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. PBA ONLY in U.S.

    WITHOUT:
    EUROPE revenues; and without considering

    ALS agitation
    MS pain
    Neuropathic pain
    Abreva
    DDex opportunities

    BIIB has a 28 PE. Needs Earnings Growth to maintain it.

    Shorts are done. Multiply 28 x $180 Million. Studies and other duplicative expenses are at their sole discretion.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "
      by jonasmoses11111.Jun 22, 2012 10:11 PM.Permalink
      .

      A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today. "

      Didn't quite work out like you said, did it? Given that the gross run rate today, (about 30 weeks later) is $85 million which is closer to the $60 million you alleged at the time than the $120 million you said it could be today. Avanir didn't even get halfway to where you said it could go.

    • "A 2.5% Week over Week Growth Rate Doubles Gross and Net Revenues every 30 WEEKS. $60 MILLION RUN RATE Today.

      IN 30 Weeks, $120 MIllion Revenue Run Rate. 60 Weeks = $180 Million Run Rate. ----


      BIIB has a 28 PE. -
      -----. Multiply 28 x $180 Million.
      "
      Your extrapolations are way over the top.
      Even the sell-side analysts are predicting only $79.1 million in gross revenues for FY ending 9/30/2013.
      Then you tell us to multiply your wildly inflated Avanir's gross revenues by the PE ratio of another company!
      But I think 4-5 times net revenues would be more than fair for a buyout price.

    • 2.5% w/w for 30 wks is a fantasy. Your indications do not come without great cost.

      I am looking for above average volume wk/wk, like today, through $4 and then I might think something is going on that has nothing to do with your points.

      You are really off track and simply speculating, just like PINOCCHIO TS/BS who you mention.

      Still sensible down here in retail investor land bud.

      SS

    • You know they have $15 to $17 million in quarterly losses and will be lucky to do $10 million in quarterly net revenues? You know don't you?

    • Actually, I underestimated the ramp at 2.5% WOW. If the ramp, continues at that pace:

      $60 MM gross run rate today.

      $120 MILLION in 30 weeks; AND

      $240 MILLION in 60 weeks, a little over a year from now. Now wouldn't that be something with a 2.5% WOW growth rate. Still only 4% of US only PBA market BASED ON SUMMERSTREET. They said $600MM is only 10% in US ONLY.

      Who in their right mind would be short? AND I am not TRADE. ON this issue, he is 100 PERCENT right. The party is OVER! Fat Lady sings. . . .

 
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