"I see HGSI has a market cap of $2.66 billion and 2013 revenues are projected to be $386 million.HGSI's market cap is therefore 6.89 times next years gross revenues.Multiplying Avanir's FY end 9/30/2013 revenues projected by overly rosy sell-side analysts of $79.07 times 6.89, I get a market cap of $545 million.Yet somehow you look at the same numbers and say that Avanir's price in a buyout has to be at least $2 billion which is almost four times the amount I get using your HGSI example."HGSI has 200MM shares outstanding. Even with $386 MILLION in REVENUES projected for next year, HGSI is PROJECTED to LOSE almost $200 MILLION DOLLARS! $1 PER SHARE!!!!! ARE YOU KIDDING!Let's see, with the next two quarters OPEX at $21MM or $84MM annually, which is ALL OF THE GUIDANCE WE HAVE. . . .what will AVNR's EARNINGS BE AT $386MM in REVENUES which is less than 7% of the $600MM PBA ONLY US market per SummerStreet?Let's see, $300MM/135 = $2 PLUS per share. A CASH COW. Watch and learn. $2 BILLION PLUS. Less than that is a non=starter IMHO
7.5 months later, net Nuedexta revenues are still only $68 million at an annual run rate and your $2 billion plus valuation is obviously not shared by the investment community.
Thank you for showing your true colors........ again.
Hi Jonasmoses – by the way welcome to the AVNR message board.The video clip below cracks me up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuStsFW4EmQSr Falconi
"what will AVNR's EARNINGS BE AT $386MM in REVENUES which is less than 7% of the $600MM PBA ONLY US market per SummerStreet?"You said to look at HGSI and I used their numbers. Sorry you don't like the way the numbers came out.One of your many valuation problems is Avanir will not have PBA net Nuedexta sales of $386 million, ever, in my opinion.I'm hoping for $220 million peak net Nuedexta PBA sales around 2017.To get to $386 million in net Nuedexta sales we will need off-label pain sales kicking in, in my opinion. I'm all for off-label pain use but who knows when or if that will happen.
The 2.5% week over week growth rate disagrees with you.... Big time.... Monday monday is coming each and every week. Just like sugar. . . . slow. . .
Just to be clear:$386MM -84MMequals $300 PLUS $MM$300MM Divided by 135MM outstanding Shares is $2 PPS PLUS in EARNINGS! Wonder what BIG PHARMA thinks with a 15 PE like struggling PFE MUCH LESS BIIB's 28 PE RATIO? and they ain't stupid......