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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • reetchbeetch reetchbeetch Aug 24, 2012 1:19 PM Flag

    Avanir Facts - The ONLY post you need

    Pumpers have been here for 2 years luring naive investors to buy above $3 and $4 and even Tradestoxx who was convincing you to buy above $5 in November 2010.

    The problem isn't the so called bashers or even the shorts the problem is the facts. Just look at what this stock did last year heading into December. If you can't see this happening again you are blind. That was a combination of tax loss selling, insiders dumping shares, and them reporting losses in November. That same thing is going to happen this year because nothing has changed.

    You have a company with $10 million in revenues and $15 million in losses every quarter that has somehow garnered a $400,000,000 market cap. I'm pretty sure that you can't survive as a company losing that much money every quarter and it looks like a failed business plan that has been 10 years in the making.

    Q1 2012 -- NetLoss -- $(15,946,157)
    Q2 2012 -- NetLoss -- $(17,050,116)
    Q3 2012 -- NetLoss -- $(15,030,214)
    Right on track for another year exceeding $60 million in losses.

    This company just renewed their shelf registration to dilute by another $100 million in outstanding shares and if their past is any indication of their future you have to factor that in to the share price. There are also around 1 million warrants just waiting to be exercised diluting this even further. $400,000,000/135,000,000 shares = $2.96
    $400,000,000/145,000,000 shares = $2.75
    $400,000,000/200,000,000 shares = $2.00

    Further dilution has ruined this pig and with the same market cap look at where this stock could be. Remember the good ol days when we had 87 million outstanding shares just 2 years ago? $400,000,000/87,000,000 shares = $4.60

    Consistent Dilution from the CEO and BOD's.
    Date ------ Outstanding Shares
    Sep 2006 -- 30,634,872
    Sep 2007 -- 39,643,876
    Sep 2008 -- 58,901,030
    Sep 2009 -- 78,844,251
    Sep 2010 -- 87,614,420
    Dec 2010 -- 108,396,709
    Mar 2011 -- 121,635,339
    Jun 2011 -- 123,354,986
    Sep 2011 -- 124,325,299
    Dec 2011 -- 132,467,537
    Feb 2012 -- 135,684,912
    Jun 2012 -- 135,825,005
    Currently well over 145,000,000 if you count the stock options not yet exercised.

    Consistent Annual Losses
    2005 -- NetLoss -- ($30,606,564)
    2006 -- NetLoss -- ($62,552,814)
    2007 -- NetLoss -- ($20,933,453)
    2008 -- NetLoss -- ($17,495,739)
    2009 -- NetLoss -- ($21,996,016)
    2010 -- NetLoss -- ($26,694,148)
    2011 -- NetLoss -- ($60,631,563)
    2012 -- Net Loss Estimated -- ($60,000,000)

    Avanir is a bad investment plain and simple. Not profitable, no dividend, and last but not least a greedy CEO and BOD's. Weekly script growth has been stagnant between 2,000 and 2,200 since May and revenues aren’t growing enough to cover expenses or the growing share count.

    Analysts have revised earnings I mean losses estimates over the last 90 days. Instead of Avanir losing ~$23 million dollars in 2013 they think they will now lose ~$46 million dollars in 2013.
    Now when will they cut their price targets in half is the real question? How can you say with a straight face that the company will lose twice as much money as you thought it would without cutting your price targets?

 
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