% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jonasmoses11111 jonasmoses11111 Sep 7, 2012 10:54 PM Flag

    That 9.8% Price Increase

    Just increased the Market Cap of the Company to Big Pharma by $88MM to $176MM. Based solely on current scripts at 2502 per week. Depending on whether the buyer is a low growth 15 PE pharma or a high growth 30 PE pharma.

    2502 x 9.8% = 245 scripts x $579 = $142K per week x 52 weeks = $7.4 MM annual gross revenue increase immediately at only 2502 weekly scripts.

    80% discount x $7.4 MM = $5.9 MM Net Revenues. For PBA only, Big Pharma needs nothing. No KK, sales reps, studies etc. Of course, that would not be prudent since the new studies for MS pain, ALZ agitation, S&S and DDEX are game changers.

    Nevertheless, $5.9MM x 15PE to 30 PE = $88MM to $176 MM big pharma market cap increase at today's scripts only.

    The market will understand it sooner or later. Actually, the Tutes and SummerStreet do now. Mr. Wei does too, but doesn't want to admit it. He will soon as his current targets are already laughable.....

    IMHO, of course. Do your DD.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • A Different way to look at it is that based on 2500 scripts at $579 gross and based on 52 avg. pill counts and 80% approximate discount, the current 2500 scripts represent 52.2MM in Net Nuedexta Revenues. At 15 PE to 30 PE to Big Pharma, that is $788MM to over $1.5 BILLION Market Cap today.

      That gives ZERO VALUE TO all current and future studies, DDEX etc. Of course, that would be ridiculous. As a result, AVNR and the TUTES obvioulsly don't think that is enough. $11 PPS simply does not make it happen even if they ran the price to $4.50 or $5 pre-offer.

      Bottom line, AVNR is going to keep growing scripts, increasing its IP position and increasing prices as data comes out through new studies etc.

    • Of course, once weekly scripts are at 5000 and 7500, the market cap increase to big pharma goes from $176MM to $352MM and $352MM to $704MM, respectively.

      It grows quite nicely! Of course, even assuming there are no additional increases along the way. Which there most assuredly will be. IMHO.

    • Correct, they can keep "some" of the studies. That is how you make money with AVNR N & NDM. Fire the human overhead. Until that happens (buyout) I personally have very little confidence in significant financial gain owning the stock except for a trade.

      I do not know why I am still holding those Jan '13 $2.50 calls except for the fact it is other peoples money I took earlier this year. Just a traders profit in it now. That last December sure was nice. My buy is back where my last buy then was....$2.20. Don't even say it.....I do not care if I wait forever, I only really have to wait until January I guess.