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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jonasmoses11111 jonasmoses11111 Sep 10, 2012 11:54 PM Flag

    Just Curious

    When AVNR has 7,500 PBA weekly scripts representing $156 MM in Net Nuedexta Revenues (at today's price), what do you think that represents to Big Pharma with 15 to 30 PE Ratios?

    What about 5,000 weekly scripts. Clearly, scripts are going up not down. Just a matter of time.... for all of the above.

    That is not even 1% of the PBA US market.

    Plus, the other indications for MS PAIN, Agitation, S&S and the Home Run with DDEX until 2030 with ALL Indications.

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    • 3-4 times net sales or a market cap of about $468-624 million.
      Hoping for more for a drug selling only $156 million per year is not conservative, in my opinion.

      • 1 Reply to rayonman1
      • Truly Laughable........

        ALL of the Analysts with the exception of your friend Wei have had their CURRENT targets between $6 and $11 PPS ($800K to $1.5B) based on ONLY $45 Million approx. of net N revenues BEFORE the price increase. Multiply times 3 and you have it with multi-Billion market opportunities and DDEX until 2030.

        You also never acknowledge that AVNR's Margins are among the best in the business. A true Cash Cow.

        We will see what Big Pharma pays. They will pay Double Your Numbers Today and Close tomorrow, but I am quite sure AVNR and the TUTES have not and will not even consider such a price.

        Today, it would take no less than $12 in my view. Of course, the PPS would be run up to at least $5 or $6 PPS first which would be a real nightmare for the short interest.

        Next year, the price increases dramatically. $12 won't feed the bulldog. All IMHO, of course.

    • And I'm just curious..why would such small numbers interest you?

      Because CLEARLY any buyout price would be nothing close compared to what could be realized in a few short years.
      Here's a small example. If you did NOTHING MORE than take the growth we have seen the last two years and applied it to the next 10 years...Just for PBA....NO EU..No anything else....the revenues we would realize would support on a P/E basis a price of about 40.00 per share.

      In other words. Buy...hold....sell in 10 years....no EU growth..no Alz....S+S...pain..Dementia...
      40.00 share..in 10 years.

      My , how shocking that is ..right?
      Do you think we'd realize ANYTHING even remotely close to that today?

      No..way.

      Now. Consider the EU. S+S testing now or soon underway. Alz..pain...dementia...and whatever else there is.

      Folks....if you can't understand the math..hire a cpa to help you.

      this stock..CAN HIT 100.00 per share...in a few years.

      And frankly..I think even Conservatively so. I have NEVER used even more than just 5% ALONE of the ALZ market ALONE to reach even my highest predictions. And I STILL come up with those numbers.

      you all just don't understand. Or, more likely.you're just so caught up in the short term as to really understand and appreciate what a growth stock we have here. And what potential there is that exists for the next few years.

      I ....HATE...the idea of any EU deal. Because we will give up so much for so little. Imagine.the EU..in just a year or two's time generating its own 100M in revenues. And the EU is BIGGER than the U.S.
      And it can be more profitable even because a lot of the corporate overhead you don't have to duplicate...its just the sales effort that has to be there more or less.

      I believe in five years time we have a 60..70...80....maybe even a 100.00 per share stock on our hands. With Avnr.

      the growth supports it. The math supports it. And all these uses support it.

      I would simply say no to any deals..at all at this point. Thank you..goodbye. come back in 5 years and we'll talk then.

      Given the rights we have to d/dex as well..this drug is most likely ours alone until 2035. 23 years of exclusive Nuedexta.

      Folks.....this is what investing is all about. And i see nothing on the horizon to stop this from reaching enormous potential.

      It seems like not that long ago we were at 20/wk trx. Now its 2500/wk. And in a year it will be 5000/wk IMO.

      We have a blockbuster here IMO.

      Let's keep it in house and let this one run wild.

      ~TS
      jmho

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • Always appreciate your enthusiasm, trade. And much of what you say is right. But I always experience some cognitive dissonance when you conflate actual and potential markets. An actual market is defined by supply and demand curves. In an ideally free market, the curves determine price. It's a pretty clear concept. The idea of a potential market, on the other hand, is vague and refers to that group of people who you think might have a use and reasonable means to acquire your product. The task of marketing, of course, is to move the potentials into the realm of the actual. It's an expensive and risky task, prone to all the stupid insults and gaudy gifts of fickle fortune. No two marketing stories are alike, and right now we are watching one of them unfold. Nothing is inevitable, but this particular story may turn out very nicely indeed.