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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jonasmoses11111 jonasmoses11111 Sep 23, 2012 9:05 PM Flag

    ray's positions

    Jean, please take your meds! Also, please take an IQ TEST and let the Board know how you do.

    More to come, but just for starters: Here is ray's takes as of late,

    1. Markman. The Markman Hearings will not lead to a settlement even though the Judge will clearly indicate from procedural standpoint which party has the upper hand. I disagree. The Markman hearing will "clearly" establish leverage which leads to a settlement at some point over 90% of the time.

    2. Generics. Per ray, generics basically will not settle until after trial in October 2013 at the earliest even though Ray sees no upside whatsoever to N for PBA unless off-label pain takes off.

    I disagree 100%. Ouery, at $10 a bottle times 120,000 scripts, generics would be bankrupt to even try to sell N for PBA only. Their gross revenue (NOT NET) before all selling expenses would only be 1.2M annually?????

    Of course they would settle. What choice do they have? They still would have NO rights to ANY future FDA approved indications whatsoever much less DDEX. Much less, 3-year rolling FDA exclusivity periods. Their TREBLE DAMAGES FOR LAWSUITS for other INDICATIONS would absolutely be a deal breaker. You will see.

    3. Agitation. AVNR does not have any rights to ALZ agitation even though it is a characteristic of emotional lability.

    (Really. Please read how broad emotional lability is. Do you see the word "agitation".) Also, did you see the new patent Richard Smith assigned to AVNR which is now in the Orange Book.

    4. Ray does not think AVNR will have an N growth rate to get to 5000 scripts in 44 more weeks including any growth from additional price increases. I disagree. 1.64% WOW is a no brainer.

    5. Ray does not think AVNR will be acquired for more than 3 times sales.

    I could not disagree more. This is absurd. ray has ZERO financial background. If I am wrong please give the Board all of your HIGHER EDUCATION degrees (after high school please). AVNR is an Earnings Free Cash Flow Generator. Under ray's theory, a company could have $100 sales with $10 margins and sell for the same as a company with $100 sales and $80 margins like AVNR. One company makes $10 and the other makes $80 per script much less OPEX differences or outstanding share differences. For example HSGI had 200 MM shares outstanding and I think ARNA does as well AVNR is a BIG PHARMA DREAM - Earnings cash cow.

    6. ALS S & S. ray dismisses the ALS opportunity even though they are conducting their own study at their own costs to determine whether ALS patients can benefit from N. I disagree 100%. This is a great opportunity for AVNR. read the patient forums.

    7. ray is long with a really small long interest.

    LOL. I disagee. We can determine this real easily. I offered but so far ray ducks and runs. For some reason, he feels he needs anonymity.

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