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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • greatdayforpumpin greatdayforpumpin Dec 21, 2012 12:12 PM Flag

    Avanir Math Problem

    From July:

    You have a company with $9 million in revenues and $17 million in losses every quarter that has somehow garnered a $531,000,000 market cap.
    This company has a shelf registration to take this to 200 million outstanding shares and if their past is any indication of their future you have to factor that in to the share price.
    $531,885,200/135,000,000 shares = $3.94
    $531,885,200/145,000,000 shares = $3.67
    $531,885,200/200,000,000 shares = $2.66

    Further dilution has ruined this pig and with the same market cap look at where this stock could be.
    Remember the good ol days when we had 87 million outstanding shares?
    $531,885,200/87,000,000 shares = $6.11

    Q1 2012 -- NetLoss -- $(15,946,157)
    Q2 2012 -- NetLoss -- $(17,050,116)
    On track for another year of exceeding $60 million in losses.

    Date ------ Outstanding Shares
    Sep 2006 -- 30,634,872
    Sep 2007 -- 39,643,876
    Sep 2008 -- 58,901,030
    Sep 2009 -- 78,844,251
    Sep 2010 -- 87,614,420
    Dec 2010 -- 108,396,709
    Mar 2011 -- 121,635,339
    Jun 2011 -- 123,354,986
    Sep 2011 -- 124,325,299
    Dec 2011 -- 132,467,537
    Feb 2012 -- 135,684,912
    Currently well over 145,000,000 if you count the stock options not yet exercised.

    Annual Losses
    2005 -- NetLoss -- ($30,606,564)
    2006 -- NetLoss -- ($62,552,814)
    2007 -- NetLoss -- ($20,933,453)
    2008 -- NetLoss -- ($17,495,739)
    2009 -- NetLoss -- ($21,996,016)
    2010 -- NetLoss -- ($26,694,148)
    2011 -- NetLoss -- ($60,631,563)
    2012 -- Net Loss Estimated -- ($60,000,000)

    They also still have patent litigation hanging over their head and this is the latest exerpt from their SEC filing.
    The validity, enforceability and scope of our core patents covering NUEDEXTA are currently being challenged as a result of recent abbreviated new drug application (“ANDA”) filings from generic drug companies. An adverse outcome in the current or any future challenges to the validity, enforceability or scope of our patent portfolio could significantly reduce revenues from NUEDEXTA and any future products. More broadly, investors should be aware that the pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive. Our ability to compete in this space involves various risks relating to our intellectual property, including:
    -our patents covering NUEDEXTA may be found to be invalid and unenforceable or insufficiently broad to block the introduction of a generic form of NUEDEXTA;
    -the claims in any of our pending patent applications may not be allowed and our patent applications may not be granted;
    -competitors may develop similar or superior technologies independently, duplicate our technologies, or design around the patented aspects of our technologies;
    -any of our issued patents may not provide us with significant competitive advantages; and
    -we may not be able to secure additional worldwide intellectual property protection for our NUEDEXTA patent portfolio.

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AVNR
5.40+0.06(+1.12%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT

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