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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jan 12, 2013 1:20 PM Flag

    Saturday Report 1.12.13

    This stock has not been a joy to own. To the contrary, it has been the very embodiment of frustration. We longs seem to have been under siege since the day after we bought the stock (now I know what it means to “rue the day”!).

    But.

    However.

    Still.

    Yes, still. Still there are these times. These times when the stock climbs like a rocket, and makes me feel like the smartest guy.

    Of course, as in marriage, those feelings don’t last long. I can’t offer much insight on the marriage aspect, but I’ll explore some questions about this…bloody….stock.

    Let’s look at the numbers: AVNR gained 20 cents on the week to close at $3.14 which is 6.8%. The NASDAQ was also green, gaining 0.8%. YTD, the gain is at 20.0%. Last January 12, the stock closed at $2.77. So this comparison is currently a positive 13.3%. But the comparison is destined to look pretty bad in a couple of weeks, if the stock doesn’t keep up its green ways.

    Here’s how the week went day by day:

    Monday: The NAS was red all day, managing to climb to a loss of only 2.85 points (0.09%). AVNR was mixed, going green after 1:00 p.m., gaining 6 cents (2.04%) to close at $3.00. Volume was 665K.

    Tuesday: The NAS had a red day, but stayed in a narrow range. It closed down 7 points, or 0.23%. ANVR was red until 3:00, closing green by 4 cents or 1.33% on decent volume of 1.121M.

    Weds: The NAS had a green day but again stayed in a narrow range, closing up 14 points or 0.45%. AVNR was red for about a minute, closing up by 8 cents or 2.63% to close at $3.12. It felt a lot stronger, with the HOD being $3.21. Volume was strong at 1.735M. Not sure of the cause of this good showing. It was the last day of a big biotech conference in San Francisco, but as far as I know, Avanir did not participate.

    Thurs: NAS was mixed, but managed to gain 16 points or 0.51%. AVNR was red before 11:00 and after 2:00, closing down 4 cents to $3.08. Volume was 730K.

    Friday: NAS has another see-saw day, with the bulls ultimately pulling out a 3.88 point win (0.12%). AVNR was green most all day, gaining 6 cents or 1.95% to $3.14. HOD was $3.175, so it was a fairly strong close. Volume was 925K.

    While this week did not feature the thrills of last week, I think we made some good technical progress. In addition to the 50 DMA at $2.71, AVNR has now crossed the 200 DMA at $3.04. Is this one of those colored cross thingies, Mike? I can’t provide a link, but just go to AVNR’s page on Yahoo and click on the Interactive chart. It’s easy to construct.

    So for now, technically, AVNR could theoretically have some room to grow now that we’ve gotten out of the recent trading range. The chart seems to show resistance at $3.85 and then $4.00. But with AVNR, a series of weeks like we’ve had recently seems to beget serous profit taking or short attacks. Don’t know which it is, but the result is the same.

    I think the stock has some powerful enemies, (like our pal AF) who are allied with those who are bearish on the stock. There have been attacks ever since Nuedexta was approved. Remember the laughable inquiry initiated by certain elected representatives a couple of years ago attacking the price of the drug? Why, tell me why, did it happened to be Avanir’s drug they focused on? I’ll say this: it was not a random target.

    More than anything, it reminds me of DNDN. Yes, the victim in Deep Capture. “Analysts” did some rather shameful things, like saying that a trial did not meet its end points, when in fact it had. That stock was beaten down for YEARS, being pinned to a $4.00 level. But take a look at its 5-year chart. That stock was over $40 on three separate occasions, and once was over 50. It’s been beaten down again, but the original story remains compelling to me.

    Why DNDN? Because they had a very effective cancer drug, one that could revolutionize the industry. Why AVNR? What can its drug do?

    It could revolutionize the nature of neurological treatment. It can be the drug many neurologists prescribe to all of their new patients (some out there will jump on that thought). It can become a new standard in the industry. And now, the company may well have secured a second generation of patent protection. Twodexta will make Nuedexta look like amateur hour.

    So that’s the stakes. Hence all the shorting and the obviously compensated posters here (on BOTH sides!).

    Slow down, Sarge. You’re starting to froth at the mouth.

    Yeah, it’s a pipe dream. But pipe dreams are the source of many of the great moments in human history. On a Saturday after yet another green week, I’m feeling pretty good.

    Enjoy it while you can, fellow longs. Soon we’ll be huddled in the bunker again. So for now, enjoy your friends and family, perhaps take in an NFL playoff game or three, and savor the moment.

    Today’s musical selection is from (former) Beatle Paul. From Band on the Run. Love the beat. Just go to you tube, and paste this in after the back slash.

    watch?v=1c5pgo6zU10

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Sarge, you have managed to capture all our frustrations and hopes.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • horcents@sbcglobal.net horcents Jan 13, 2013 12:22 PM Flag

      Hello, Sarge. Thanks for the report....well done, as always. I share your frustration but I've always had a sense that at some point reality will catch up to perception (negative or positive) and results will justify one side of the equation or the other. You have been a stalwart defender of the dream and I'm confident your view will prevail. Time and circumstances are on our side.

    • Very nice report Sarge !
      Thank you as always.

      Greetings.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks Sarge....great job as usual..........GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Kel

    • Sarge - 5 stars for this weeks report!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      Excellent Report!!!!
      Appreciate all your efforts!!!!!
      glta longs!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • "It can be the drug many neurologists prescribe to all of their new patients (some out there will jump on that thought)." Sorry, Sarge but that is just a fantasy.

      " It can become a new standard in the industry." Sarge, this doesn't say anything specific and sounds like a reverie.

      "And now, the company may well have secured a second generation of patent protection. Twodexta will make Nuedexta look like amateur hour."

      Deut-dex really needs to be put in perspective on this message board.
      It's really premature to be optimistic about deut-dex because, unless it makes quinidine unnecessary, it is probably only mildly useful because we have seen that the tiniest dose of quinidine has essentially the same side effects as small doses of quinidine.

      If deut-dex ultimately needs to be combined with 5 mg of quinidine, for example, probably the only advantage will be that drug interactions will be significantly lessened.

      So to be really useful, deut-dex will have to be able to obviate the use of quinidine. So we first need to see the pharmacokinetic data (in detail with different time points--not some rough graph) and then we need to see some good evidence that deut dex actually is effective.
      Way too early for deut-dex to be investable.

    • Hello Sarge - Trust all goes well my friend, thank you for your weekly report.

      Twodexta what a thing to mention, all manner of scenarios rush through my mind when you mention that word. The likes of, effects on early partnering, effects on royalties to CNS, further License agreements with CNS for indications not currently covered, simultaneous applications under the USA/EU Collaboration agreement, coupled with multi indication application submissions, not to mention Q may not be needed or very little of it, the list goes on and on.

      Look forward to being right here with you old chap, while this develops.

      Of course we shall have a little water poured on us but we do have the tin hats.

      Have a pleasant weekend.

      Very best regards.

      Sr Falconi.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Sarge

      Would love to see you post on INVESTORVILLAGE. They do not allow BASHERS like we have on YMB. Take a look at message boards for CELG, SGMO, or, ISIS as examples of good boards.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • vacationcharlie@rocketmail.com vacationcharlie Jan 12, 2013 1:32 PM Flag

      Great summary, Sarge! I think it's great that this stock has "powerful enemies", as it is a testament to the huge potential here...
      Looking forward to EU approval and the the effect of new sales structure and TV ads in coming months. Shorts can suck it.
      Updated my ignore list today, the board cleaned up nicely (except that the new format displays a lot of "message hidden because you ignored user", which is unnecessary).
      Have a great weekend.
      Charlie.

      Sentiment: Hold

 
AVNR
3.46+0.04(+1.17%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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