Last week, this summary was brimming with optimism. This week, reality in the form of options expiration showed up. So much for momentum. Well, at least the 49ers won (but did they have to spot the Falcons 17 points?).
Let’s look at the numbers: AVNR lost 12 cents on the week to close at $3.02 which is 3.8%. The NASDAQ was green, gaining 0.3%. YTD, the stock’s gain is at 15.4%. Last January 19, the stock closed at $2.87. So the YOY comparison is currently a positive 5.2%. But as I said last week, this comparison is going to get more competitive in the next few weeks.
Here’s how the week went day by day:
Monday: The NAS was red all day, though it stayed in a narrow range, closing with a loss of 8.14 points (0.26%). AVNR was green after just a few minutes, enjoying a green day that started well with positive Rx numbers for the week ending January 4, but faded to a gain of 2 cents (0.64%) to close at $3.16. Volume was 1.362M.
Tuesday: The NAS had a red day, but rallied to close down 6.72 points, or 0.22%. ANVR had a see-saw day, closing right where it began at $3.16. Volume was 708K.
Weds: The NAS had a green day but again stayed in a narrow range, closing up 6.76 points or 0.22%. AVNR had a red day, closing down 3 cents or 0.95% at $3.13. Volume was a lackluster 675K.
Thurs: NAS had a green day gaining 18.46 points or 0.59%. AVNR was red all day, closing down 4 cents to $3.09. Volume was 1.084M.
Friday: NAS had a red day, but climbed to a loss of only 1.29 points (0.04%). AVNR celebrated options expiration Friday by losing 7 cents or 2.27% to $3.02. Low of the day was $2.96, so the shorts did their job in holding the price down. Volume was 1.356M.
Once, about mid-year last year, when the stock price went down as options expired, I boldly predicted that the next week would be green. What a wonderfully naïve thought. The Wall Street gods taught me a lesson that next week, taking AVNR stock down an extra week for good measure. I have since learned there are no guarantees when it comes to stock prices.
So where DO we go from here? Speculation is all well and good, but for a stock, the bottom line is the bottom line. Rx numbers will tell the tale this week, IMO. If Avanir follows up last week’s improved numbers with another jump, we longs could enjoy checking our private portfolios. If the numbers are disappointing, the gods may remind us of who’s in charge once again.
Today’s musical selection is from a great favorite, Pete Townshend, from his first solo album, Empty Glass. It repeats the theme, “keep on working”. This is a message I would humbly convey to the sales reps scouring the LTC facilities and neuro offices around the country to promote Nuedexta. Be warned, though—the tune will stick in your brain. Just go to you tube, and paste this in after the back slash.
No doubt your guests were well taken care of and had a great time, perhaps the board games came out.
I would assume we have a number of visitors to our message board that can only call in now and then that find your weekly report very useful, particularly the weekly over view.
Thanks and cheers for now.
Once again a completely boring report for those who have a bad memory of what was a bad week for AVNR. It seems that the recognition is running thin though for these weekly recaps of this poor stock. My bold prediction is the stock goes down tomorrow and this week. There no weekly history report or hopes; just what it will do.
Now lets go listen to the End of Days Part One by Ministry!
Sarge, you put so much effort into these reports. Just wanted to let you know that I appreciate them very much. Thank you and let's hope that 2013 will not see pps below $3 ever again.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thank you for your kind thoughts, burgoo. As I've said before, going over the numbers to do the reports often shows me that things are not as bad as they sometimes "feel" watching the day today movement of the stock price.
As for not going below $3.00, I share your wish, but don't know if I'd take it to the bank.