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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jan 21, 2013 2:43 PM Flag

    MLK Monday Report

    Last week, this summary was brimming with optimism. This week, reality in the form of options expiration showed up. So much for momentum. Well, at least the 49ers won (but did they have to spot the Falcons 17 points?).

    Let’s look at the numbers: AVNR lost 12 cents on the week to close at $3.02 which is 3.8%. The NASDAQ was green, gaining 0.3%. YTD, the stock’s gain is at 15.4%. Last January 19, the stock closed at $2.87. So the YOY comparison is currently a positive 5.2%. But as I said last week, this comparison is going to get more competitive in the next few weeks.

    Here’s how the week went day by day:

    Monday: The NAS was red all day, though it stayed in a narrow range, closing with a loss of 8.14 points (0.26%). AVNR was green after just a few minutes, enjoying a green day that started well with positive Rx numbers for the week ending January 4, but faded to a gain of 2 cents (0.64%) to close at $3.16. Volume was 1.362M.

    Tuesday: The NAS had a red day, but rallied to close down 6.72 points, or 0.22%. ANVR had a see-saw day, closing right where it began at $3.16. Volume was 708K.

    Weds: The NAS had a green day but again stayed in a narrow range, closing up 6.76 points or 0.22%. AVNR had a red day, closing down 3 cents or 0.95% at $3.13. Volume was a lackluster 675K.

    Thurs: NAS had a green day gaining 18.46 points or 0.59%. AVNR was red all day, closing down 4 cents to $3.09. Volume was 1.084M.

    Friday: NAS had a red day, but climbed to a loss of only 1.29 points (0.04%). AVNR celebrated options expiration Friday by losing 7 cents or 2.27% to $3.02. Low of the day was $2.96, so the shorts did their job in holding the price down. Volume was 1.356M.

    Once, about mid-year last year, when the stock price went down as options expired, I boldly predicted that the next week would be green. What a wonderfully naïve thought. The Wall Street gods taught me a lesson that next week, taking AVNR stock down an extra week for good measure. I have since learned there are no guarantees when it comes to stock prices.

    So where DO we go from here? Speculation is all well and good, but for a stock, the bottom line is the bottom line. Rx numbers will tell the tale this week, IMO. If Avanir follows up last week’s improved numbers with another jump, we longs could enjoy checking our private portfolios. If the numbers are disappointing, the gods may remind us of who’s in charge once again.

    Today’s musical selection is from a great favorite, Pete Townshend, from his first solo album, Empty Glass. It repeats the theme, “keep on working”. This is a message I would humbly convey to the sales reps scouring the LTC facilities and neuro offices around the country to promote Nuedexta. Be warned, though—the tune will stick in your brain. Just go to you tube, and paste this in after the back slash.



    Sentiment: Buy

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