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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • superichkid superichkid Feb 5, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    The average premium paid in biothech acquisitions

    is ~120% of the prior months trading price.

    So if it were to happen today, the price for AVNR would likely be around $7. At an average one month trailing trading price of $4 it would be ~$9.

    Piper Jaffray is estimating $74 million in revs this year and $109 million next year. That is 47% yoy growth.

    I think Big Pharma would be willing to pay 10x fy 2014 revs for a company growing revs at ~50%.

    That would also give us a $9 price.

    That is where things stand today imo. The longer Big Pharma waits, the more expensive a buyout will be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • This is Not your 'average company'. Potential revenues are sizable over the next 13 years worldwide.The probability that other indications will be approved is very strong following 2 years of use by tens of thousands of patients without a single negative side effect report. Mapp had only the HOPE of getting a drug approved and sold for $1B. AVNR is not just hope but is on the market, growing strong, with two or more potential indications in areas of high unmet medical need (Alzheimer's & Pain). From the JOM "On all six scales, DMQ [in various dosages] was significantly superior to placebo for neuropathic pain" where as Pfizers Lyrica saw absolutely no improvement for pain over placebo in two studies. AVNR will sell for $2B+ which is 14-18 bucks per share or they won't sell (once they hit a $150M+ run rate or so)... These are probably the very same numbers suitors talking to Keith were hearing a year ago that had them soooooo #$%$ off! Why? AVNR has 130 sales people in the US (someone said a large force dedicated to LTC but small overall). In contrast....."Pfizer has 106,000 employees worldwide, including 42,000 in the United States. Its sales force, including managers, totals just under 12,000 in the United States and another 24,000 outside the United States."
      They know the potential for development here. Professional analysts (Summer St.or Piper or Wedbush) constantly place a value on public companies with various formulas and there are many ways to value a company. Price per Share plus a premium will not work for this one. JMHO The competition?....they wouldn't conspire to do anything illegal now would they??? Something awful like dumping shares...or spreading false rumors.......Oh wait!!!! .....
      In September 2009, Pfizer pleaded guilty to the illegal marketing of the arthritis drug Bextra for uses unapproved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and agreed to a $2.3 billion settlement, the largest health care fraud settlement at that time.[7] Pfizer also paid the U.S. government $1.3 billion in criminal fines related to the "off-label" marketing of Bextra, the largest penalty ever rendered for any crime.[8] Called a repeat offender, this was Pfizer's fourth such settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice in the previous ten years.[9][10]

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to wildbill7711
      • wild - very nicely written and agree on all counts. Huge Potential is there for AVNR, but once they reach that mid cap status will they be around or get gobble up. ???

        I posted in the morning with patent running out expiration big Pharma always looking to gobble up potential small Biotech to bolster there portfolio.

        No doubt AVNR will be gone at what price - TIME WILL TELL..

        I would be happy at $7 to $9 tomorrow but if you said 2 years from Now I would not be happy

        currently 2 years with AVNR it been a tough road but things are finally coming together and we could see some serious PPS rise.

        Again if i see PPS riding then will sure ride the wave and take profit on the way up..

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Well, this is interesting.

      What about just not selling the company to anyone?

      We sell now and the shorts have won. Assuming as I do that the shorts are here to purposefully keep the price down to enable a lower price takeover. Without the shorts leverage we would be higher.

      SRK - why are you and your friends talking as if selling for 9 is a good idea? I have appreciated your information and diligence, but this conversation is starting to resemble some of our earlier posters that start out crazy to win, and then they just fold or their message changes after convincing us other posters that you are a committed long.

      Selling for 9 is not a good idea, we should already be a long way advanced towards that level already. I'n not saying that there are not strong players that may be able to pressure management and/or the BOD to sell early.

      It is not however a good idea or a fair price to sell just at the inflection point where we have proven our worth and then simply give that worth away to some different group of investors.


      • 1 Reply to silentpartnerinavn
      • Paul - With respect everyone has there own investment strategy, My goal was double my money from under $3, I was looking at $6 minimum and re-evaluate.

        Some people had a goal off $250 which was unrealistic.

        Thing is some people may have 2 year investment strategy some may have 5 years and some have 10 years..

        so if someone really offered me $7 plus tomorrow i would vote for it and take the 120% profit verses holding out for 500% and no guarantee it will happen.

        Again with respect everyone has different strategy different investment theory and different time frame.


        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • SRK - buyout i agree when it going to happen after EU approval not before so expect sometime in September were an offer and a buyout can happen and not before.

      As far as your price target i will be happy taking $9 in September. either way like you said we are sitting on a goldmine and it just be patience and it will come.

      Thanks man ;) still want my STOLI Elite lol ;)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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