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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • superichkid superichkid Feb 11, 2013 3:34 PM Flag

    Healthcare Analytics scripts for week of 2/1/13

    My source says that this weeks numbers reported by Wedbush for TRx, NRx and RRx were duplicated from the prior week and are deemed to be reported in error. If corrected they will send to me and I will report them if I receive them.

    The only reliable H-A script information I have received in the last two weeks is that the TRx number for the week ended 1/25 which was a decrease of 2.7% w/w. Since this was a holiday week (MLK and Inauguration Day) I give the number little significance.

    The IMS numbers reported early continue to be excellent imo. NRx are up 5.7% w/w and averaging over 5% for the past two weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Based on the conference call last week, it sounds like the penetration in LTC facilities could increase two to three fold just in units where AVNR has existing working relationships. If that is the case, then continued strength in scripts could very well persist the rest of they year if not longer. And, it sounds like they have working relationships with less than half of the LTC facilities, so considerable upside still exists on that end of things as well. GLTA

      • 1 Reply to jn_kelly
      • Don't underestimate the effect the advertising campaign is going to have on retail sales, also. Advertising is the backbone of American commerce and it must be effective or companies wouldn't spend much money on it. Also think about how most people were not familiar with other disorders, such as depression and doctors and others assumed that these people were just weak-willed and didn't care to help themselves. The idea of clinical depression being common and often caused by a neurotransmitter imbalance, therefore nothing to be ashamed of, became accepted by the public after antidepressants were developed, advertised and otherwise sold to the public. Now antidepressants are a multi-billion dollar business. Psuedo Bulbar Effect recognition is just in its infancy, but it is in a position to grow expotentially and then of course as other indications get approved, sky is the limit. I think that losses will be shrinking fast this year as income grows and who know by the end of the 4th quarter, we may be at break even. The stock is bound to gain this year, but it is a question of how much. It may happen soon or it may not happen until next year, but I believe explosive growth is on the medium term horizon.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Thanks SRK. We have much to look forward to this year.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks as always SRK!!

      N Worx!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy