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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Feb 11, 2013 5:01 PM Flag

    Why short bashers might be wrong about Scripts..

    and why MAYBE they ARE up a lot due to the commercials.

    ladies and gentlemen....RESEARCH what LTC means in this country.

    LTC does NOT mean that everyone is in a facility of some sort. Quite the reverse...the data i'm finding suggests that the VAST majority...as in about 70% of LTC patients are actually treated at HOME.
    I know of someone in fact who works for an LTC facility but who is assigned to be with the patient at their home in around the clock shifts whereby 3 different nurses care for the patient around the clock.

    Why does this matter? It matters because this type of LTC patient does NOT appear to be subjected to the 14 day prescription rules.

    And so..let's look at the potential math involved then..shall we?
    Lets say that 65% of Avnrs scripts are LTC...and 35% not.
    OUT OF THAT 65%....70% MAY NOT BE subjected to the 14 day rule while 30% may be.

    And then..out of that 30%...MAYBE 30% of those haven't even yet begun to comply with the new rules given how many people and facilities this impacts.

    And so..MAYBE our script growth has been up because of the commercials?

    Lots to consider here folks.

    ~TS
    jmho

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • The commercials have and will have virtually ZERO effect on scripts, you pumper.

      It's clear you've never discussed this with a physician, and ascertained how they feel about patients coming to them after seeing a commercial. I have. Extensively. It's a non-issue.

      • 3 Replies to e_shrink
      • I can certainly see a lot of people who have no idea what PBA really is and who have no neurologic disease wondering if they have PBA because sometimes they feel giddy and laugh more at the same level of humor than they might otherwise laugh. Or conversely, they may find themselves crying at things and wondering why they are crying so much and they are actually crying because they have an underlying sadness or difficulty in their life that they are not fully in touch with or even clinical depression or anxiety that makes them cry more than they think they should.
        So, yes, Trade's 10% figure is probably way too high a "conversion to scripts" number for those calling the information number and requesting free information be sent to them.

      • Wow, e-shrink that is quite a revolutionary discovery. I guess the billions that pharmas spend on direct to customer advertising is just spent by morons throwing away their money, ignorantly thinking it is having an impact on sales. How do you know you, and not they, are correct?

        Because YOU TALKED TO A PHYSICIAN!!!!! You really are a stealthy little genius!!

      • 120,000 hits to the website....
        35000 PBA fact kits requested and sent out....

        3500 new scripts? sounds reasonable to me.

        What's it equal?

        25 MILLION DOLLARS..in new business that will pay for a LOT more commercials.

        ~TS

        BTW.what doctor did u discuss this with Bert.... your own shrink?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • From medicare dottttt gov

      "what is Long term care?
      Long-term care is a variety of services that includes medical and non-medical care to people who have a chronic illness or disability. Long-term care helps meet health or personal needs. Most long-term care is to assist people with support services such as activities of daily living like dressing, bathing, and using the bathroom. Long-term care can be provided at home, in the community, in assisted living or in nursing homes. It is important to remember that you may need long-term care at any age.

      You may never need long-term care. This year, about nine million men and women over the age of 65 will need long-term care. By 2020, 12 million older Americans will need long-term care. Most will be cared for at home; family and friends are the sole caregivers for 70 percent of the elderly."

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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