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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Feb 12, 2013 11:24 AM Flag

    Analysis...

    1) IMO..i would virtually ignore both IMS and HA numbers for the last few weeks and through the next 90 days. I simply believe that there may be some or even many LTC facilities and those associated with them who have not complied with the new rules. This change is too big...to widespread..and impacts way too many people to ever expect that. In fact..i think we're probably lucky if even 70% of them have properly complied since day one. It will take time to sort through all this.

    2) A "gut check" tells me this. There has been a national TV campaign in full swing during the last few weeks. Numbers the Company DOES know is that about 120k unique hits were made to the associated website and as of the conf. call they had sent out 35,000 fact kits. Folks..scripts are UP because of this. How much? We'll have to see. But it would simply defy the laws of numbers to think that there has been no positive result from these efforts.

    3)Where are we now? Perhaps a month away from Chmp recommendation and EU approval in June.
    I think we'll both get the recommendation AND the broad label. Avnr is too prepared with good information and a world class team to think otherwise. The FDA approved it that way. And, perhaps the strongest point of all is how safe and effective this drug is. A broad label is coming for the EU and Rimjob knows it.

    4)Partnership? Yep. Probably in June to july. How much up front? We'll see but it will be a lot of money.
    You want growth? How's 100% growth for the EU strike you?

    5) And then..everything else that is positive about this drug. 2030 until the DDEX patents expire and many uses along the way.

    Bottom line is this. I just wouldn't get too caught up in numbers today that might be inaccurate and that are going to dramatically change anyway. It would be sort of like a pre~med student worrying about his PT income from a grocery store...while on his way to so much more when he finally becomes a doctor.

    We have plenty of money remaining and likely within 4 mos time..a lot more coming.

    Rimjob, Rayscam and their pals aren't going to be winning this one folks.

    ~TS
    jmho

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
AVNR
3.46+0.04(+1.17%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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